Earnings Growth The dominance of mega-cap tech companies is expected to persist, but their EPS growth may slow. This could narrow the gap in EPS growth between these companies and the S&P 500 median companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
World Technology Earnings vs. Global Market World technology earnings have surpassed those of the global market, with the tech sector’s significant growth and innovation driving this trend. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation – Shiller’s Cyclically-Adjusted Price-To-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio The Shiller CAPE ratio is elevated relative to history. While valuation is not a reliable timing tool, investors should be mindful of the potential for lower future returns when valuations remain high for an extended period. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings – S&P 500 LTM EPS Growth YoY According to Morgan Stanley’s leading earnings indicator, the outlook for S&P 500 EPS over the next 12 months is positive, suggesting a potential rise in profitability. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls The proportion of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI during earnings calls is steadily increasing, indicating the growing excitement surrounding this technology. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprise A strong 7% earnings surprise in the first quarter indicates robust performance by S&P 500 companies, which is likely to have a positive impact on investor confidence. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Earnings Estimate Revision Ratio The S&P 500 earnings estimate revision ratio has shown significant improvement, reflecting positive trends in earnings and expectations. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons Earnings season usually sees the S&P 500 rallying, with a typical median average return of 2.0%. This time, however, the trend looks different. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Earnings Revision The earnings revision ratio is showing an improving trend for small and large caps, while it is trending down for the Nasdaq 100. This divergence in earnings revisions could reflect changing market dynamics. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Dollar vs. S&P 500 Index Forward Price/Earnings Keeping a close eye on the correlation between the U.S. dollar and S&P 500 valuation multiples is essential, especially considering the potential end of the greenback’s bull market cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management