Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls Although many S&P 500 companies discuss AI during their earnings calls, suggesting a major technological shift, its adoption and impact have yet to become widespread across all major corporations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Proportion of S&P 500 Firms Mentioning Recession during Quarterly Earnings Calls The proportion of S&P 500 firms mentioning “recession” in their earnings calls has risen sharply to 24%, signaling growing worries about an economic slowdown despite continued positive earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies This quarter’s earnings season demonstrates continued resilience in corporate profitability. 51% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q1 earnings estimates by at least 1 stdev., while 12% have missed by at least 1 stdev. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate The proportion of U.S. companies exceeding earnings estimates remained above the historical average in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing earnings resilience. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Share of S&P 500 Compagnies Providing Forward Earnings Guidance During Reporting Season The trend of fewer S&P 500 companies providing forward guidance is likely to persist as long as macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Forward Earnings and U.S. Dollar Index The weakening U.S. dollar is raising significant concerns for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly through its interplay with tariffs and global economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite economic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, downward revisions to 2025 EPS estimates have remained modest, underscoring their resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Higher inflation and lower corporate profitability structurally undermine the sustainability of U.S. equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales S&P 500’s profit margins for 2025 face significant risks from tariffs and rising import costs, which could undermine the current optimistic consensus forecasts. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Estimates Wall Street’s optimistic earnings projections have sparked debate about their alignment with economic realities. While many analysts remain bullish, there are growing concerns about the sustainability of these projections. Image: Real Investment Advice