Earnings Growth Goldman Sachs anticipates a more diversified earnings landscape for the S&P 500, with the dominance of the Magnificent Seven tech giants moderating as other companies pick up the pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report While positive earnings surprises still led to outperformance in 1Q, the magnitude of that outperformance was smaller than usual for the quarter, due to broader macroeconomic concerns or already high expectations priced into stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The widening gap between current earnings forecasts and historical growth trends is fueling investor concerns about the sustainability of these optimistic projections. Image: Real Investment Advice
Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision The 2025 EPS revision trend follows historical patterns. With high initial estimates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should stay alert for possible further downward adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls Although many S&P 500 companies discuss AI during their earnings calls, suggesting a major technological shift, its adoption and impact have yet to become widespread across all major corporations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Proportion of S&P 500 Firms Mentioning Recession during Quarterly Earnings Calls The proportion of S&P 500 firms mentioning “recession” in their earnings calls has risen sharply to 24%, signaling growing worries about an economic slowdown despite continued positive earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies This quarter’s earnings season demonstrates continued resilience in corporate profitability. 51% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q1 earnings estimates by at least 1 stdev., while 12% have missed by at least 1 stdev. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate The proportion of U.S. companies exceeding earnings estimates remained above the historical average in Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing earnings resilience. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Share of S&P 500 Compagnies Providing Forward Earnings Guidance During Reporting Season The trend of fewer S&P 500 companies providing forward guidance is likely to persist as long as macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Forward Earnings and U.S. Dollar Index The weakening U.S. dollar is raising significant concerns for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly through its interplay with tariffs and global economic uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite economic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, downward revisions to 2025 EPS estimates have remained modest, underscoring their resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management