U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months This chart shows the U.S. core inflation expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also like “Where Does Inflation Come From?” and “How…

U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns

U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns This chart suggests that M2 money supply to nominal GDP ratio leads S&P 500 returns by one year. Is the S&P 500 vulnerable to a drop? Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland