Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Picture source: howmuch.net
Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS vs. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Profits Creative accounting is imaginative ways to present accounts. The divergences between earnings and U.S. nonfinancial corporate profits occur before recessions. Picture source: Gavekal, Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Recovery Since The Financial Crisis The chart shows that the S&P 500 has outperformed its historical recoveries since 2009. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The GS Financial Conditions Index and The Target Fed Funds Rate The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is not at its lowest level and the current levels are quite similar than previous first rate cuts. Picture source: Bianco Research
Financial Stress Index and Financial Conditions Index If financial conditions tighten sharply, then it indicates a coming slowdown or recession. Currently, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index are at lowest and below zero. The average value of the St. Louis Financial Stress Index is designed to be zero…
Warning Signs of the Next Financial Crisis Some vulnerabilities in the global economy pose a risk for investors and could amplify the next financial crisis. Picture source: International Monetary Fund
Financial Crisis Survival Lessons: Beats Market & Peers Since Bottom (Ariel Fund) Charles Bobrinskoy at Ariel Investments, has a patient and long-term value approach. He says: “the best time to buy is when people are panicking and scared. You have to be greedy when others are fearful. This is very hard to do, but this…
Financial Advisor talks Recession, Alternative Investing and Retirement Peter Mallouk, president and founder of Creative Planning, discusses why he does not see an overvaluation of equities, why he is not fan of crypto, and why time is all-important when investing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0jEosfkkuI
