Financials Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in financials is still unusually light, leaving ample room to build exposure. Such caution looks misplaced given the upbeat consensus on earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Returns for Major Global Financial Assets March proved rough for investors. The Middle East conflict rattled global markets, spiked oil prices through Hormuz supply fears, and spilled over into equities, bonds, and traditional safe-havens. Could April bring a breather? Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets Americans are all-in on equities like never before. That speaks to booming wealth and bullish sentiment, but it also leaves portfolios more vulnerable to any valuation reset. The ride higher feels good, until it doesn’t. Image: Topdown Charts
Change in Global Financial Conditions Following 8 Largest Geopolitical Risk Shocks in the Middle East Even though past Middle East conflicts haven’t consistently tightened financial conditions, the global FCI is up 31bp. Sustained at this level, the squeeze could trim global GDP growth by roughly 0.3pp over the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
GS Financial Conditions Index With rates lower and equities climbing, looser US financial conditions are giving both consumer spending and business investment a stronger tailwind. Confidence often strengthens in step. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Corporate America is minting profits like never before, and with margins set to stretch even further into 2026, the bullish narrative remains intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Financial Sector’s Profit vs. Labour Demand With so much of finance built on information processing, the sector may soon stand as the clearest example of how AI can lift earnings without lifting headcount. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cash to Total Assets S&P 500 and S&P 500 Ex-Financials The corporate cash cushion is thinning. S&P 500 firms have slashed their reserves from pandemic peaks, redirecting capital toward AI infrastructure, growth projects, and buybacks in a world where cash no longer comes cheap. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy and Global Quantitative Research
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and SLOOS With financial conditions easing and banks pulling back on loan tightening, the U.S. economy looks poised for stronger investment, hiring, and growth. But those tailwinds could reignite inflation if demand runs ahead of supply. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Allocation as % of Household Financial Assets Equities dominate household portfolios in the U.S., Australia, and Sweden, but caution still rules in Europe and Japan, where cash and liquid assets remain king. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research