Non-Financial Corporate Bond Debt

Non-Financial Corporate Bond Debt Chart showing the corporate bond debt due within the subsequent three years. Is this where the next debt crisis will begin? Image: Financial Times

Financial Stress and Conditions

Financial Stress Index and Financial Conditions Index If financial conditions tighten sharply, this suggests a coming slowdown or recession. Currently, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index are at lowest and below zero. The average value of the St. Louis Financial Stress Index is designed to be zero since…

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions This indicator provides an update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. If financial conditions tighten sharply, this suggests a coming slowdown or recession.

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting an improvement of U.S. real GDP growth in 2020, as the impulse from financial conditions turns positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Cumulative Number of Global Rate Cuts since the Global Financial Crisis

Cumulative Number of Global Rate Cuts since the Global Financial Crisis This chart puts into perspective the cumulative number of global rate cuts since the Global Financial Crisis. In 2019, central banks in OECD countries haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Financial Conditions

U.S. Financial Conditions Relative to the low VIX and favourable financial conditions, the equity risk premium remains quite high. Image: Fidelity Investments