Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions This indicator provides an update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. If financial conditions tighten sharply, this indicates a coming slowdown.

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting an improvement of U.S. real GDP growth in 2020, as the impulse from financial conditions turns positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Cumulative Number of Global Rate Cuts since the Global Financial Crisis

Cumulative Number of Global Rate Cuts since the Global Financial Crisis This chart puts into perspective the cumulative number of global rate cuts since the Global Financial Crisis. In 2019, central banks in OECD countries haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Financial Conditions

U.S. Financial Conditions Relative to the low VIX and favourable financial conditions, the equity risk premium remains quite high. Image: Fidelity Investments

Valuation – Real Assets vs. Financial Assets

Valuation – Real Assets vs. Financial Assets Chart suggesting that real assets are at all-time lows relative to financial assets. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy