Search Results for: financial

Non-Financial Corporate Bond Debt Chart showing the corporate bond debt due within the subsequent three years. Is this where the next debt crisis will begin? Image: Financial Times

Private Non-Financial Debt Service Ratios Relative To Income Lower interest rates make debt more sustainable. What matters is the debt service cost.

Global Investment Research Financial Excess Monitor and Recessions The heat map suggests below-average imbalances in the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Financial Stress Index and Financial Conditions Index If financial conditions tighten sharply, this suggests a coming slowdown or recession. Currently, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index are at lowest and below zero. The average value of the St. Louis Financial Stress Index is designed to be zero since…

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions This indicator provides an update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. If financial conditions tighten sharply, this suggests a coming slowdown or recession.

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting an improvement of U.S. real GDP growth in 2020, as the impulse from financial conditions turns positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Cumulative Number of Global Rate Cuts since the Global Financial Crisis This chart puts into perspective the cumulative number of global rate cuts since the Global Financial Crisis. In 2019, central banks in OECD countries haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Financial Conditions Relative to the low VIX and favourable financial conditions, the equity risk premium remains quite high. Image: Fidelity Investments

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and S&P 500 Financial conditions remain easy, which is historically bullish for U.S. equities. Image: BofA Global Research

Probability of U.S. Recession – Real Economic Variables vs. Financial Variables Real economic variables do not suggest that a recession is imminent, while financial variables point to a higher risk of recession. Image: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Image to Enlarge