EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle Historically, S&P 500 volatility has increased ahead of U.S. elections, but at the end of the day, “profits matter more than politics.” Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth Goldman Sachs expects a rebound in earnings similar to the 2009-2010 period. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual S&P 500 EPS Growth Through 2022 Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 earnings to contract by 21% this year, before rebounding by 30% in 2021 and 11% in 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Estimate Goldman Sachs has raised its 2020 S&P 500 EPS estimate from $115 to $130. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Year/Year EPS Growth Goldman Sachs maintains the 2020 S&P 500 EPS estimate of $110 and adjusts the quarterly path of earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Aggregate EPS Growth U.S. earnings are outperforming the rest of the world in Q1:2020, because the U.S. was the slowest to lock down its economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth This chart shows the historical correlation between S&P 500 EPS growth and buyback growth (R² = 0.32). Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 and EPS by 33%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates of 2020 EPS Growth This chart suggests that equity market valuations are too high, as current stock prices do not reflect the scale of earnings declines in a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Growth and Consensus The U.S. stock market is recovering, but Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $110 this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research