S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth This chart shows the historical correlation between S&P 500 EPS growth and buyback growth (R² = 0.32). Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 and EPS by 33%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates of 2020 EPS Growth This chart suggests that equity market valuations are too high, as current stock prices do not reflect the scale of earnings declines in a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Growth and Consensus The U.S. stock market is recovering, but Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $110 this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth This chart shows the link between economic growth and S&P 500 EPS growth, and highlights the sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS to macro variables. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Expected Path Quarterly S&P 500 EPS Growth Goldman Sachs expects 2020 EPS estimate equals $157, corresponding to a decline of 5% vs. 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual S&P 500 EPS Growth and S&P 500 Forward P/E Goldman’s baseline scenario suggests S&P 500 EPS growth of 0% in 2020 and forward P/E multiple equals 19.4x at year-end 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual S&P 500 EPS Growth Goldman Sachs expects no earnings growth this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Wicksell Spread and S&P 500 12-Month EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the Wicksell spread tends to lead the S&P 500 12-Month EPS growth by 3 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google and S&P 500 EPS Growth FAAMG supported S&P 500 EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research