Trade Policy Uncertainty When trade policy uncertainty peaks, the S&P 500 often posts positive returns. Markets tend to over-discount risks during uncertain periods, and relief rallies are common once worst-case scenarios are avoided or resolved. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact of Policy Uncertainty on S&P 500 Cash Use S&P 500 buybacks may face significant impacts from policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns a Year After Spike in Policy Uncertainty Index The S&P 500 has a history of generating solid 12-month returns after periods of heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Policy Uncertainty Index vs. S&P 500 Index While periods of policy uncertainty can create temporary disruptions, they are often short-lived, with spikes frequently occurring near market lows. Image: Real Investment Advice
Trade Policy Uncertainty Indexes Uncertainty in trade policy often leads to positive future returns for the S&P 500, as markets tend to price in worst-case scenarios during unclear times. Once clarity emerges, stocks frequently recover. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Uncertainty in economic policy has often led to positive future returns for the S&P 500, as markets anticipate the worst during unclear periods. When the situation becomes clearer, stocks tend to recover strongly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Volatility and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty The chart shows that U.S. equity volatility does not mirror global economic policy uncertainty since 2009, perhaps due to strong central bank support. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
S&P 500 and VIX Although U.S. stocks are rallying and volatility remains low—reflecting market confidence—significant underlying threats from rising trade frictions and policy uncertainty persist. Image: Bloomberg
Monthly U.S. Equity Mutual Fund and ETF Flows Recently, U.S. equity fund flows have been weak, with sustained outflows driven by trade policy uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research