Buyback Announcements In 2025, U.S. companies are announcing record levels of share buybacks, aiming to return cash to shareholders, stabilize stock prices, and enhance EPS as they navigate economic and policy uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. CEO Confidence Index The sharp decline in U.S. CEO optimism in 2025 is largely attributed to new tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, inflation, and unpredictable government actions, reversing the post-election optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Note Yields: Explaining Rolling Three-Month Changes Chart suggesting that U.S. policy uncertainty and Fed committing to low rates explain U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Passive Over Active Funds History suggests that investor outflows from active funds are smallest after periods of high policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500/MSCI World and U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Index The renewed relative strength and attractiveness of U.S. assets amid global uncertainty and monetary policy differentials have played a central role in driving the U.S. dollar’s recent rebound Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Effective vs. Statutory U.S. Tariff Rates While statutory tariff rates have jumped following swift policy changes, the effective tariff rate—the actual rate paid on imports—lags because of delayed enforcement, stockpiling, shifting trade routes, and ongoing uncertainty. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index U.S. equity sentiment appears to be at relatively depressed levels heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election, due to heightened uncertainty, market volatility, and concerns about potential policy shifts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Health Care Sector Excess Returns vs. S&P 500 Around U.S. Presidential Elections The health care sector tends to underperform through U.S. presidential elections, due to uncertainty about future government policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research