Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders aren’t betting heavily on a Fed rate cut at the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, with markets pricing in just an 18.8% chance of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group
Fed – The Distribution of FOMC Voters Should investors bet for a hawkish Fed policy tone in 2025, as the central bank remains focused on its fight against persistent inflation, even if it means risking some economic pain? Image: BofA Global Research
Fed – Rate Hikes at FOMC Meetings When will the Fed stop hiking interest rates? Goldman Sachs expects 75bp additional rate hikes in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
Fed Rate Cut – Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) Strip for FOMC Meetings over the Next 12 Months Traders see one more Fed interest rate cut this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Before the Next FOMC Meeting, the Fed Funds Market Is Pretty Accurate Probability of a Fed rate cut on July 31, 2019: 100% (Fed funds market expectation). Image: Bianco Research
The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting Seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time since 1994. Image: Bianco Research
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Traders are sticking to expectations for two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, even as Fed projections reveal deep splits. The easing drive has lost some steam, but the cycle isn’t done yet. Image: Bloomberg
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts Traders are increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-point move and just a 23% likelihood of another cut in January 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup