Before the Next FOMC Meeting, the Fed Funds Market Is Pretty Accurate Probability of a Fed rate cut on July 31, 2019: 100% (Fed funds market expectation). Picture source: Bianco Research
The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting Seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time since 1994. Picture source: Bianco Research
The Market Has Correctly Called Each Fed Rate Decision since 2010 And since 1994, seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time. See also “The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting.” Picture source: Deutsche Bank
Most Important Variables Explaining the S&P 500’s YoY Return Today, the two most important variables explaining the S&P 500’s YoY return: FOMC rate change and U.S. hard economic data. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
