Fed – The Distribution of FOMC Voters Should investors bet for a hawkish Fed policy tone in 2025, as the central bank remains focused on its fight against persistent inflation, even if it means risking some economic pain? Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders currently see a 14.5% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the FOMC meeting on January 31, 2024. Image: CME Group
Fed – Rate Hikes at FOMC Meetings When will the Fed stop hiking interest rates? Goldman Sachs expects 75bp additional rate hikes in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Federal Funds Target Rate: FOMC Projection Stocks tend to underperform in times of tight monetary policy. Image: Alpine Macro
Fed Funds Pricing by FOMC Meeting Markets expect a Fed funds terminal rate at 3.25% and the Fed to cut rates in 2023. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Rate Cut – Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) Strip for FOMC Meetings over the Next 12 Months Traders see one more Fed interest rate cut this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Before the Next FOMC Meeting, the Fed Funds Market Is Pretty Accurate Probability of a Fed rate cut on July 31, 2019: 100% (Fed funds market expectation). Image: Bianco Research
The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting Seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time since 1994. Image: Bianco Research
Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The FOMC’s latest dot plot projects only 25 basis points of rate cuts for 2024, which looks hawkish at first glance. Image: Bloomberg