Search Results for: FOMC

Fed Rate Cut – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Dec. 11 Meeting Traders see a 6.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC December 11 meeting. Image: CME Group

Before the Next FOMC Meeting, the Fed Funds Market Is Pretty Accurate Probability of a Fed rate cut on July 31, 2019: 100% (Fed funds market expectation). Image: Bianco Research

The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting Seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time since 1994. Image: Bianco Research

The Market Has Correctly Called Each Fed Rate Decision since 2010 And since 1994, seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time. You may also like “The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting.” Image: Deutsche Bank

Most Important Variables Explaining the S&P 500’s YoY Return Today, the two most important variables explaining the S&P 500’s YoY return: FOMC rate change and U.S. hard economic data.  Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

What About the Predictive Power of the Fed? As former Fed policymaker Narayana Kocherlakota said in 2016: “Don’t rely on FOMC forecasts of future fed funds rates.” Why? Because the economy is often shaken by crises and does not evolve as expected. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC