Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders show little optimism for a Fed rate cut at the July 30, 2025 FOMC meeting, with market expectations assigning just a 4.7% probability of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group
Fed – The Distribution of FOMC Voters Should investors bet for a hawkish Fed policy tone in 2025, as the central bank remains focused on its fight against persistent inflation, even if it means risking some economic pain? Image: BofA Global Research
Fed – Rate Hikes at FOMC Meetings When will the Fed stop hiking interest rates? Goldman Sachs expects 75bp additional rate hikes in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
Fed Rate Cut – Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) Strip for FOMC Meetings over the Next 12 Months Traders see one more Fed interest rate cut this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Before the Next FOMC Meeting, the Fed Funds Market Is Pretty Accurate Probability of a Fed rate cut on July 31, 2019: 100% (Fed funds market expectation). Image: Bianco Research
The Fed Funds Market Is Rarely Wrong About the Next FOMC Meeting Seven days before a FOMC meeting, the market has been accurate 95% of the time since 1994. Image: Bianco Research
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost two rate cuts before the end of 2025. Image: Bloomberg
Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup
U.S. GDP Growth Forecasts Goldman Sachs is more bullish on U.S. GDP growth than the consensus and the FOMC’s forecast, reflecting their confidence in a stronger performance for the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research