US: Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate

U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Picture source: Oxford Economics

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP There is a pretty good correlation between U.S. initial unemployment claims and U.S. GDP. Initial unemployment claims could suggest an acceleration of U.S. GDP in Q3 2019. Click on the Picture to Enlarge

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly jobless claims decreased to 209,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.14% of being unemployed in a given month in the United States.

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1.Today, it stands at 1.28 and is rising, suggesting a recession is not imminent. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of…

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Over

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Over The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…

Are We Near a Recession?

Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply…