U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading. It has now surged to its highest since 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate vs. Gasoline Price / Core CPI When gasoline prices rise faster than inflation and move in step with growth, the Fed tends to lift rates. But what is the determining factor this time: strong demand or deep strain? It’s clearly the latter. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation cooled in February as core CPI rose 0.22%, right on expectations. The annual rate slowed to 2.5%, marking steady disinflation progress but still short of the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation – Cleveland Median CPI vs. M2 Savings Deposits When fiscal policy drives money creation, inflation risk jumps. Spending and liquidity rise together, and before long, too much money chases too few goods. Recent U.S. money trends point toward price pressures ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI With the Fed funds rate still running well above inflation, policy looks overly tight—and investors are betting on deeper rate cuts to follow. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs projects U.S. core CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in tariffs, and expects it to gradually ease to 2.6% in 2026 despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. CPI Deviation from Consensus A series of lower-than-expected inflation readings gives the administration greater economic leeway to pursue higher tariffs, driven by the (possibly mistaken) belief that U.S. consumers will be largely insulated from their effects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold/CPI Ratio The inflation-adjusted price of gold has reached a new high, breaking its previous record from January 1980. This reflects the ongoing devaluation of the U.S. dollar, global economic uncertainties, and strong demand from central banks. Image: Bloomberg
Market-Implied Probability of U.S. CPI Inflation Over the Next 5 Years Market pricing indicates a substantial likelihood that future U.S. headline CPI inflation rates will exceed 3%, with a 33% probability over the next five years. Image: Goldman Sachs
U.S. Headline and Core CPI Inflation The latest inflation data for October 2024 indicates that U.S. inflation has remained firm, showing a slight uptick rather than continuing its irregular descent, suggesting that the Fed’s battle against inflation is not yet over. Image: Bloomberg
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The combination of declining contributions from key sectors like shelter and transportation is expected to lead to a notable slowdown in U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research