Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation

Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The shrinking contributions from shelter and private transportation services are expected to result in a slowdown of U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 3% by the end of 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Core CPI Inflation

U.S. Core CPI Inflation BofA expects U.S. core CPI inflation to cool off in March to 0.24% month-on-month, which should give the Fed confidence to begin its cutting cycle in June. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. CPI Inflation

Services CPI Inflation Inflation in services remains higher and more persistent across various regions, underscoring the challenges policymakers face in managing and controlling inflation within the services industry. Image: BofA Global Research

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. CPI Inflation

U.S. CPI Inflation – Volatility vs. Inflation The United States has had remarkably steady inflation rates for 40 years, unlike the fluctuating patterns seen since 1775. This anomaly can be attributed in part to monetary policies aimed at keeping inflation levels low and stable. Image: BofA Global Research

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts If the Fed cuts rate hikes in June, the U.S. headline CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, potentially creating challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Inflation – CPI Forecast

GDP Growth and CPI Forecasts In 2024, global growth is expected to mildly decelerate, followed by a gradual recovery in 2025. Additionally, inflation is projected to gradually decrease across most countries. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates

U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate

U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy