U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the current disinflationary trend. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. core CPI inflation to be 2.8% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in the impact of tariffs. Without tariffs, their projection for core CPI inflation would be 2.3% by year-end. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold/CPI Ratio The inflation-adjusted price of gold has reached a new high, breaking its previous record from January 1980. This reflects the ongoing devaluation of the U.S. dollar, global economic uncertainties, and strong demand from central banks. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market-Implied Probability of U.S. CPI Inflation Over the Next 5 Years Market pricing indicates a substantial likelihood that future U.S. headline CPI inflation rates will exceed 3%, with a 33% probability over the next five years. Image: Goldman Sachs
U.S. CPI Inflation While U.S. inflation echoes the 1970s, different forces are at play. However, the prospect of 2025 tariffs and other economic policies warns against complacency. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Headline and Core CPI Inflation The latest inflation data for October 2024 indicates that U.S. inflation has remained firm, showing a slight uptick rather than continuing its irregular descent, suggesting that the Fed’s battle against inflation is not yet over. Image: Bloomberg
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The combination of declining contributions from key sectors like shelter and transportation is expected to lead to a notable slowdown in U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core CPI Inflation In September, U.S. core CPI inflation showed a modest increase of 0.312% month-over-month, indicating that inflation pressures are not significantly escalating. Image: Nomura
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprise – CPI Surprise The improving economic surprise index and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest that U.S. equities may better withstand inflation compared to previous cycles. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate Less CPI To combat inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates aggressively to their highest level in years, resulting in the real federal funds rate reaching a post-GFC high. Image: Deutsche Bank Research