Search Results for: CPI

U.S. CPI Inflation Chart suggesting lower inflation ahead. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Core CPI and JOLTS Job Openings (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that JOLTS job openings leads U.S. core cpi by 12 months. Image: BCA Research

Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goods and Core CPI Services 20 years of almost no inflation in goods. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…

Demographics – U.S. Inflation (CPI) vs. U.S. Population Aged 20-54 The population of 20-54s will start to increase and could therefore lead to a return to inflation. Image: Longview Economics

Hotel CPI (Inflation) Interesting chart showing that hotel CPI appears to be disconnected. Is the U.S. consumer doing well? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996).  It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge

Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility Since 1987, the S&P 500 6-month realised volatility has been the lowest, when U.S. CPI growth has been in the 2 to 3 per cent range. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

U.S. Core Inflation vs. Home Prices (Leading Indicator) Home prices suggest that core CPI seems likely to fall further. Image: Scotiabank Economics

Difference in U.S. Inflation Measures PCE and CPI diverge, suggesting that PCE may be understimated. Image: Swedbank Research