U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…
CPI vs. Conference Board Inflation Expectations Coordinated monetary and fiscal easing should lift inflation higher in this cycle. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
WTI Crude Oil and Headline CPI Inflation This chart suggests that falling oil prices could easily lead to deflation. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Inflation – Probability Headline CPI Exceeds 2.0% YoY U.S. inflation expectations are rebounding for the first time this year. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. CPI Inflation Chart suggesting lower inflation ahead. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Core CPI and JOLTS Job Openings (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that JOLTS job openings leads U.S. core cpi by 12 months. Image: BCA Research
Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goods and Core CPI Services 20 years of almost no inflation in goods. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Demographics – U.S. Inflation (CPI) vs. U.S. Population Aged 20-54 The population of 20-54s will start to increase and could therefore lead to a return to inflation. Image: Longview Economics
Hotel CPI (Inflation) Interesting chart showing that hotel CPI appears to be disconnected. Is the U.S. consumer doing well? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge