U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…
Demographics – U.S. Inflation (CPI) vs. U.S. Population Aged 20-54 The population of 20-54s will start to increase and could therefore lead to a return to inflation. Image: Longview Economics
Hotel CPI (Inflation) Interesting chart showing that hotel CPI appears to be disconnected. Is the U.S. consumer doing well? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Inflation and S&P 500 6-Month Realised Volatility Since 1987, the S&P 500 6-month realised volatility has been the lowest, when U.S. CPI growth has been in the 2 to 3 per cent range. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Home Prices (Leading Indicator) Home prices suggest that core CPI seems likely to fall further. Image: Scotiabank Economics
Difference in U.S. Inflation Measures PCE and CPI diverge, suggesting that PCE may be understimated. Image: Swedbank Research
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…
Ranking Developed Economies by Key Growth Metrics Currently, the United States is ranked numer one in real GDP, core CPI and consumer confidence. Image: Arbor Research & Trading
U.S. Labor Force vs. Inflation The chart shows the enduring link between labor force and inflation. The chart also suggests that U.S. labor force leads U.S. CPI by three years. Demographic trends imply subdued inflation. You may also like “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.”…
Civilian Labor Force Growth vs. Inflation since 1962 This chart suggests that civilian labor force growth leads CPI by four years. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch