Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The rally has made U.S. equities harder to chase. Upside looks limited, while the risk of a pullback is building as valuations stretch. The risk-reward now looks less compelling. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Drawdowns from 52-Week High and the First Two Years of a New Fed Chair’s Term Fed leadership changes don’t usually shake markets on their own. It’s the macro picture and prior positioning that set the tone. The shift only bites if it clashes with what markets were expecting in the first place. Image:…
S&P 500 Drawdown and Insider Buying/Selling The Vickers insider sell/buy ratio, which tracks corporate insider transactions, indicates insiders perceive value at current price levels—a trend historically viewed as a bullish signal for market direction. Image: Fidelity Investments
Largest Calendar Year Peak to Trough S&P 500 Drawdown The S&P 500 has shown resilience over extended periods, often delivering positive annual returns despite experiencing significant intra-year volatility. Over the past 40 years, the median annual drawdown of the index has been 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown While the macroeconomic environment may still support U.S. equities, Goldman Sachs’ model indicates an increasing risk of a stock market correction in the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Drawdown from 52-Week High and S&P 500 Performance 1-Year Later Historically, the S&P 500 has been positive one year after a 33% decline from 52-week high. Image: Charles Schwab
S&P 500 Drawdown Is the S&P 500 predicting a U.S. recession, as the Fed is more aggressive than expected? Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs Do investors have the courage to invest in U.S. stocks right now? Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Drawdown – Geopolitical Events and Stock Market Reactions Historically, the impact of geopolitical events on U.S. stocks has tended to be short-lived. Image: LPL Research
Max 3-Month S&P 500 Drawdowns in Midterm Election Years Could the S&P 500 fall more than 16% this year? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy