Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The S&P 500 has reached a point where the probabilities of a sharp rally and a meaningful drawdown are closely aligned, signaling a market at equilibrium. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Drawdown in DXY Dollar Index The U.S. equity drawdown has caused major losses for non-U.S. investors, as falling stock prices and a weaker dollar combined. This has prompted many to reconsider their currency risk strategies and exposure to U.S. equities. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Drawdown and Insider Buying/Selling The Vickers insider sell/buy ratio, which tracks corporate insider transactions, indicates insiders perceive value at current price levels—a trend historically viewed as a bullish signal for market direction. Image: Fidelity Investments
Maximum S&P 500 Drawdowns and Recessions If the U.S. economy enters a recession due to Trump’s tariffs, the stock market could decline further. The market appears not to have fully priced in the risk of a recession. Image: Yahoo Finance
Largest Calendar Year Peak to Trough S&P 500 Drawdown The S&P 500 has shown resilience over extended periods, often delivering positive annual returns despite experiencing significant intra-year volatility. Over the past 40 years, the median annual drawdown of the index has been 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown While the macroeconomic environment may still support U.S. equities, Goldman Sachs’ model indicates an increasing risk of a stock market correction in the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Drawdown from 52-Week High and S&P 500 Performance 1-Year Later Historically, the S&P 500 has been positive one year after a 33% decline from 52-week high. Image: Charles Schwab
S&P 500 Drawdown Is the S&P 500 predicting a U.S. recession, as the Fed is more aggressive than expected? Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs Do investors have the courage to invest in U.S. stocks right now? Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Drawdown – Geopolitical Events and Stock Market Reactions Historically, the impact of geopolitical events on U.S. stocks has tended to be short-lived. Image: LPL Research
Max 3-Month S&P 500 Drawdowns in Midterm Election Years Could the S&P 500 fall more than 16% this year? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy