% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks

% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are having a good year in 2025, with half of them beating their benchmarks so far—much higher than the average of 37%. Still, history shows that it’s uncommon for this outperformance to last. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Performance – % of S&P 500 Stocks Outperforming the Benchmark by Year

Performance – % of S&P 500 Stocks Outperforming the Benchmark by Year Market leadership has broadened in 2025. Whereas a handful of large tech companies dominated in 2023 and 2024, more than half of S&P 500 stocks are now outperforming the index. Image: Ned Davis Research

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…