U.S. Equity EPS Growth Expectations U.S. equity EPS growth expectations are particularly strong, with analysts projecting double-digit growth in both 2025 and 2026, driven by economic expansion and technological advancements. Image: TS Lombard
Earnings Growth While mega-cap tech companies are expected to retain their market dominance, their earnings per share growth may slow down, potentially narrowing the gap between their EPS growth and that of other S&P 500 companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations S&P 500 earnings growth has consistently exceeded expectations in recent years, reflecting strong corporate performance and favorable economic conditions, leading analysts to remain optimistic about future growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy, forecasting a more favorable GDP growth outlook for 2025 than current consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth If the trade war does not escalate further, the effects from the new policies on U.S. GDP are small and largely offsetting in the baseline outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Given that the S&P 500 CAPE ratio is experiencing one of the largest deviations from its long-term exponential growth trend in recorded history, it is reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Federal Debt Growth and Gold Price While the increase in U.S. federal debt has traditionally correlated with higher gold prices, multiple other factors significantly influence gold’s market value. Image: Deutsche Bank
Consensus Estimates EPS Growth Consensus estimates project a 14% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, indicating a continued positive trend in corporate profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research