Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections

Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, reflecting a subdued outlook shaped by persistent trade tensions and high policy uncertainty. Image: International Monetary Fund

Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth

Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth The U.S. stock market’s recent underperformance is expected to reduce the wealth effect, turning it from a boost to a drag on consumption and increasing the risk of a broader economic slowdown as consumer spending weakens. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Growth

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts U.S. GDP growth at just 0.5% in 2025, sharply revised down due to increased financial and policy risks, highlighting concerns about a difficult and uncertain economic outlook Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth

Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth The P/E premium reflects higher expected EPS growth, supported by a strong current correlation between EPS growth forecasts and P/E multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus Estimated Margin Growth

Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Earnings Growth

Earnings Growth Goldman Sachs predicts a narrowing gap in earnings growth between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P 500, with the former’s outsized contribution to index earnings expected to diminish. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI

U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI Last week, U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly following the White House’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures, raising global concerns among investors and policymakers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Even amid economic uncertainties, consensus estimates forecast a solid 10% rise in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, reflecting the resilience of the corporate sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research