Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 With earnings set to jump 26% this year, the Magnificent Seven look poised to outpace the rest of the S&P 500, where growth is seen at just 11%. It’s a telling gap, and tech’s momentum still looks unstoppable. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The market is telling a slower-growth story. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.5% real GDP growth in the US, far shy of Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% call for Q4. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street remains optimistic as analysts project S&P 500 earnings to jump 15% in 2026 and 16% in 2027. Small caps could steal the show, their profits projected up 47% this year and another 30% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 43rd percentile, positioning reflects a market that has eased slightly below neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, well away from both extreme optimism or panic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is betting on a resilient U.S. economy, projecting growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, both ahead of consensus, as easing inflation and steady hiring keep the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Quarterly Capex Growth Later in 2026, hyperscalers are expected to ease capex growth, a shift that could drag on valuations but also leave them vulnerable in the supply-strained fight for AI dominance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Wealth Effects on Annualized Real PCE Growth Should stocks stumble, the positive wealth effect supporting consumption may turn into a headwind during the second half of 2026. After all, consumer sentiment is definitely tied to market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are testing the bottom of their decade-long channel versus the rest of the S&P 500, a level that has often sparked rebounds, except during the 2022 bear market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation