Sell In May? Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns Despite the historical tendency for weaker performance, there is still potential for stock market gains during the next 6 months, which are typically considered the weakest period. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Total Return vs. “Sell in May” Is “Sell in May and Go Away” a myth? Image: Financial Times
Sell in May and Go Away – Performance of the S&P 500 The next 6 months have been the worst on average, but the S&P 500 has been higher 7 of the past 8 years during the May to October period. Image: Barron’s
Sell in May and Go Away Is a Myth The S&P 500 Total Return from 1928 to 2018 shows that “Sell in May and Go Away” was not a winning strategy. Image: Charlie Bilello
Sell in May and Go Away? Just keep in mind that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were positive in May. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year Because the third-year of a president’s term is positive (91% of the time since 1925) and in six of the past seven years the US stock market has performed very well. Image: MarketWatch
% of Large Cap Active Funds Outperforming Russell 1000 Benchmarks in May Best May in history for actively managed large-cap funds. But can active large-cap funds outperform benchmark over a full market cycle? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Small Cap Stocks – Relationship Between Relative Fwd P/E of Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Relative Returns For long-term investors, periods when small-cap stocks are trading at a significant discount to large-cap stocks may offer attractive investment opportunities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Sell Side Consensus Indicator The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ equity allocation recommendations, was unchanged in June. The current level suggests that the S&P 500 may see positive gains over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E: Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 For long-term investors looking to diversify their investment portfolios, small-caps may be an attractive option as they offer relatively cheaper valuations compared to large-caps. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy