Sell in May and Go Away – Performance of the S&P 500 The next 6 months have been the worst on average, but the S&P 500 has been higher 7 of the past 8 years during the May to October period. Image: Barron’s
Sell In May? Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns The next 6 months have been the worst on average. Here are the 6-month returns for the S&P 500 Index since 1950. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Sell in May and Go Away Is a Myth The S&P 500 Total Return from 1928 to 2018 shows that “Sell in May and Go Away” was not a winning strategy. Image: Charlie Bilello
Sell in May and Go Away? Just keep in mind that 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were positive in May. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year Because the third-year of a president’s term is positive (91% of the time since 1925) and in six of the past seven years the US stock market has performed very well. Image: MarketWatch
CTAs’ Net Position in Russell 2000 Futures vs. Russell 2000 CTAs may be slightly walking back their net long position in Russell 2000 futures. Image: Nomura
Fed Rate Cut Is Not Necessarily a Sell Signal This chart shows the S&P 500 Index performance, 6 and 12 months after an initial Federal Reserve rate cut. You may also like “S&P 500 Performance Around Previous Fed Cuts.” Image: LPL Financial LLC
Seasonality – S&P 500 1-Month & Percentage of Time Up If you “sell in May and go away”, you could miss a summer rally, as June-August is historically the second best 3-month period. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and Seasonal Rotation Strategy Sell in May and go away? This chart suggests that a rotation between defensive and cyclical sectors was a much better strategy Image: CFRA, S&P Global
Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…