Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 6.4% YoY in December, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Percent U.S. Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions The U.S. job market is recovering quickly. Image: Calculated Risk
U.S. Job Openings Rate U.S. job openings are near record high, with 11 million open jobs in October, as hiring struggles persist. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Funds vs. NFIB Small Business Jobs Hard to Fill Historically, higher wage inflation is associated with higher Fed funds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls and JOLTS Job Openings U.S. job openings hit another record high, as hiring struggles persist. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Difference Between Number of Jobs Available and Number of Unemployed Americans vs. Annualized Wage Growth U.S. wage growth is expected to remain strong in the short run. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Labor Market – JOLTS Job Openings Minus Total Unemployed There are once again more job openings than unemployed Americans. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Length of Time before Jobs Fully Returned after a Recession How long will it take for the U.S. labor market to fully recover? Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
U.S. Labor Market – Permanent Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” The permanent unemployment rate in the United States is expected to fall significantly. Image: BCA Research
Labor Market – U.S. Total Job Openings Less U.S. Unemployed Persons There are now more job openings in the United States. than unemployed persons. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management