Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -16.10% YoY in August, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
U.S. Job Posting Trend Index The momentum in labor market activity is fading, and the trend in U.S. job postings is much lower than in 2019. Image: BofA
Percent of Unemployed U.S. Workers that Expect to Return to Same Job Goldman Sachs expects that a quarter of temporary layoffs will become permanent. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percent U.S. Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions The United States has recovered less than half the jobs lost during the coronavirus pandemic. Image: Calculated Risk
Length of Time before Jobs Fully Returned after a Recession The U.S. economy is probably bottoming out, but jobs may not come totally back for years. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Permanent Job Losers in the U.S. Permanent job losers continued to rise in June. Last time, it took three years for permanent job losses to peak. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Job Losses – Payroll Trends by Wage Cohort Lower-wage workers in the United States have been hit harder by coronavirus job losses. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Job Losses During Recessions in the U.S. The March-May job loss is two times larger than the total GFC job loss. On the positive side, U.S. job losses see revival in May. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Unemployment Rate – Jobless Claims in the Last Nine Weeks as a Share of Labor Force This chart shows the wave of job losses in the United States. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Google Trends on Unemployment Insurance Google trends on unemployment insurance suggest lower initial jobless claims. Image: Nordea and Macrobond