U.S. Labor Market – NFIB Small Business Job Openings Hard to Fill U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high. Will labor demand continue to heat up? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -4.33% YoY in March, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
U.S. Core CPI and JOLTS Job Openings (Leading Indicator) JOLTS Job Openings tend to lead U.S. core CPI by 12 months. Image: BCA Research
Percent U.S. Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions The United States recovered just over half the jobs lost during the coronavirus pandemic. Image: Calculated Risk
U.S. Jobs – Initial and Continued Claims Initial and continued claims remain elevated, suggesting that the road to recovery is a long journey. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Jobs – Payroll Employment Lost and Regained The resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic has stalled the U.S. jobs recovery. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Job Posting Trend Index This chart highlights the impact of Covid-19 on the U.S. job posting trend. Image: BofA
U.S. Labor Market – Initial Jobless Claims The four-week moving average of jobless claims ticked higher, suggesting that the road to recovery is a long journey. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Labor Market – Number of Jobs Lost U.S. workers face permanent job losses as the coronavirus pandemic persists. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Percent of Unemployed U.S. Workers that Expect to Return to Same Job Goldman Sachs expects that a quarter of temporary layoffs will become permanent. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research