US: Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate

U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Picture source: Oxford Economics

Where Has Job Growth Come from Since 2009?

Where Has Job Growth Come from Since 2009? From a bachelor’s degree (58 millions), some college (37 millions) and high school graduates (36 millions). Actually, this interesting chart shows the importance of education in finding a job. Picture Source: Bianco Research

105 Consecutive Months of Job Growth

105 Consecutive Months of Job Growth It is the 105th consecutive month of job growth. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, but is still at historically low levels. Even if there are signs that the U.S. job market is slowing, it is still strong for the time being. Picture source: Leonard Kiefer

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment During this business cycle, America has added over 20 million jobs. Picture source: Leonard Kiefer

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly jobless claims decreased to 209,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.14% of being unemployed in a given month in the United States.

U.S. Total Private Employment

U.S. Total Private Employment Another interesting chart showing that the U.S. job market is still strong for the time being, although it is slowing. The U.S. services jobs (blue lines) appear to be in fairly good shape. Picture source: Robin Brooks

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession.  The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…