Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Prediction market odds now strongly favor a Trump re-election victory in the 2024 presidential election, a development that may have significant consequences for global financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows from 1 Year Before to 1 Year After U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2004 Positive flows into U.S. equity funds could help support further gains in the S&P 500 after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Coronavirus – U.S. State COVID-19 Full Vaccination Rates vs. 2020 Presidential Election Popular Vote Share Vaccination rates in the United States are highly correlated with politics. Image: BCA Research
Health Care Stocks – Health Care Sector Excess Returns vs. S&P 500 Around U.S. Presidential Elections The health care sector tends to outperform after Election Day. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2000, the EUR/USD tends to rise after the U.S. presidential election. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Percentage of Popular Vote and Electoral College Vote for Winning Candidate in U.S. Presidential Elections Since 1789 Winning the popular vote doesn’t ensure victory in the United States. Image: J.P. Morgan
Performance of the S&P 500 on the 10 Days Following U.S. Presidential Elections The S&P 500 has gained an average 1.7% on the 10 days following U.S. Presidential elections since 1944. Image: Statista
Forward Three-Month S&P 500 Performance Following U.S. Presidential Election The S&P 500 tends to do much better if the President is re-elected. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Presidential Election – Potential Scenario Based on Electoral Votes Pennsylvania could decide the presidential election. Image: Financial Times