S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500 is following the familiar midterm‑year script, with gains often building into mid‑April before the market starts to lose momentum as the election comes into view. That midterm effect shows up almost every cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Around Close Presidential Elections While U.S. elections are significant in shaping economic policy and affecting investor sentiment, they do not consistently drive changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Presidential Election Recent prediction market data indicates that the gap between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is narrowing. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Around Predictable U.S. Presidential Elections While U.S. elections can create anxiety and volatility due to policy uncertainties, predictable elections often coincide with continued market trends and reduced market volatility. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election The rising odds for Trump in prediction markets have been closely tied to an upswing in S&P 500 prices, reflecting investor sentiment that aligns with potential changes in economic policy should he win the election. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows from 1 Year Before to 1 Year After U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2004 Positive flows into U.S. equity funds could help support further gains in the S&P 500 after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Coronavirus – U.S. State COVID-19 Full Vaccination Rates vs. 2020 Presidential Election Popular Vote Share Vaccination rates in the United States are highly correlated with politics. Image: BCA Research