S&P 500 3-Month Performance During an Election Year In Presidential election years, June to August stands out as the strongest 3-month period of the year. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time, with an average return of 7.3% since 1928. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Presidential Cycle and Average Total Return of the S&P 500 Should investors expect the S&P 500 to rise after midterm elections, despite macro headwinds? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Election and S&P 500 from October 2000 to January 2001 What could happen to the stock market if there’s no clear winner on presidential Election Day? Image: Financial Times
Yield Curve – 2s-10s U.S. Treasury Slope Around the U.S. Election Date in 2016 and 2020 The U.S. Treasury yield curve could steepen following the presidential election. Image: J.P. Morgan
VIX Curve and U.S. Election Investors expect more volatility ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Elections – Pre-election Equity Performance vs. Average Chart showing how the U.S. stock market has performed before and after presidential elections (“Closely contested” is defined as the margin of popular vote being below average). Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Volatility and U.S. Elections This chart shows how U.S. presidential elections affect volatility when the same party remains in office or not. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The U.S. Presidential Cycle How U.S. presidential elections affect stock market returns? This chart shows the forward return for the U.S. stock market based on election outcomes. Image: Fidelity Investments