U.S. 1-Month T-Bill Yield U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills) have been hit by concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling. A default by the U.S. government on its debt would have serious and prolonged financial and economic effects. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Recession – 3-Month T-Bills Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation and 10-Year Treasury Rate Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation Historically, there has never been a recession in the United States with negative real interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 NTM EPS Yield Gap vs. 6-Month T-Bill Yields Cash is becoming an attractive option for investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
T-Bill Market – Treasury Bills Since March 2020, the T-bill market has doubled in size amid strong demand. Image: J.P. Morgan
Bull Market: Percentage of Assets With Returns Lower Than T-Bills 2019 was a ‘bull market in everything’. Should investors be worried? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 % Change As cash and T-bills currently offer an attractive yield, should investors “sell in May and go away” this year? Image: TS Lombard
Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield Minus S&P 500 Dividend Yield Should investors favor U.S. T-bills over the S&P 500 dividend yield? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
6-Month Treasury Bill Yield vs. S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted Earnings Yield Should investors favor U.S. T-bills over U.S. stocks? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel