Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Annual Return of Treasuries – T-bills In 2024, U.S. Treasuries have once again underperformed cash, resulting in a challenging year for bond investors. Many investors have found more appealing opportunities in cash savings or other asset classes. Image: Bloomberg
GWIM T-Bill Flows In light of the Fed’s recent rate cuts, BofA’s private clients are actively selling T-bills and strategically positioning themselves for potential gains in other asset classes. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Cash + T-bills % of AUM Will cash and T-bills serve as the driving force behind the bull markets of 2024? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Recession – 3-Month T-Bills Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation and 10-Year Treasury Rate Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation Historically, there has never been a recession in the United States with negative real interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 NTM EPS Yield Gap vs. 6-Month T-Bill Yields Cash is becoming an attractive option for investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bull Market: Percentage of Assets With Returns Lower Than T-Bills 2019 was a ‘bull market in everything’. Should investors be worried? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield Minus S&P 500 Dividend Yield Should investors favor U.S. T-bills over the S&P 500 dividend yield? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
6-Month Treasury Bill Yield vs. S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted Earnings Yield Should investors favor U.S. T-bills over U.S. stocks? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel