Fed Funds Rate vs. S&P 500

Fed Funds Rate vs. S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Fed funds rate leads the S&P 500 by 1 to 3 years since the 1990s. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of July 10, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2020 imply an expected rate of only 1.80%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

Forward Performance Following First Fed Funds Rate Cuts

Forward Performance Following First Fed Funds Rate Cuts After first Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 performance is quite attractive on average when no recession. See also “Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut.” Picture source: Strategas