Search Results for: fed funds

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of September 13, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.28%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

U.S. Yield Curve 1M to 30Y and Correlation Against Fed Funds Effective Rate According to the chart, a 75bp cut is required to normalize the term structure of interest rates. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Picture source: Credit Suisse

Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Picture source: TS Lombard

Fed Funds Rate Leads Money-Market Fund Inflows The chart suggests that Fed funds rate leads money-market fund inflows by two years. Money-market fund inflows stop when risk becomes attractive again. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop

The GS Financial Conditions Index and The Target Fed Funds Rate The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index is not at its lowest level and the current levels are quite similar than previous first rate cuts. Picture source: Bianco Research

S&P 500 Index and Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Presidential Elections Since 1956, history tells us that the S&P 500 is more important than the Fed, within 12 months preceding the U.S. presidential election. Picture source: Renaissance Macro

Fed Funds Rate vs. S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Fed funds rate leads the S&P 500 by 1 to 3 years since the 1990s. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Forward Performance Following First Fed Funds Rate Cuts After first Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 performance is quite attractive on average when no recession. You may also like “Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut.” Picture source: Strategas