Bear Market – Comparing Speed of Decline to Speed of Recovery Of the 10 stock market drawdowns of about 30% since 1920, the median time needed to recover half of losses, was half the duration of the decline. Image: CNBC
Bear Market – S&P 500 Lows Compared to Initial Jobless Claims vs. Unemployment Rate The S&P 500 tends to bottom several weeks before the peak in jobless claims. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 Bear Market The percentage of stocks hitting 52-week lows and the 3-month median daily correlation, could suggest a low. Image: SunTrust Private Wealth Management
Bear Market – Post-Waterfall Decline Environment in Dow Jones Industrial Average After waterfalls, retests are common. The Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks low 69% of time, by median of 2.4% and within a median of two months. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Index Bear Market Bounces Since 1950, the average max bounce during 9 bear markets has been +14.5%. Image: LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Bear Market Correction Potential This chart suggests a level of 1800 for the S&P 500 index, assuming 18x trailing earnings and $100/share due to the recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Bear Market Rally – S&P 500 “Bounced” in 2008 To put the current bear market rally in perspective, this chart shows that the S&P 500 “bounced” six times by 9% to 19% in 2008. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Bear Market Bottom Historically, bear markets tend to retest the bottom either once or twice. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Bear Market “Head Fake” Rallies Since 1937, eleven bear markets experienced a “head fake” rally, when the real economic pain began in the United States. Image: CNBC
Secular Bear Market – Big Up & Big Down Days Most big up & big down days tend to occur during secular bear markets. Image: BofA Global Research