S&P 500 Corrections and Bear Markets Market corrections don’t always lead to bear markets. In fact, historical data shows that only 13 of the past 39 corrections transitioned into bear markets, giving bulls reason to smile! Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections The S&P 500’s recent sell-off has been notably sharper compared to the average bull market correction, aligning more closely with the characteristics of an average bear market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After Enters a 10% Correction, But Doesn’t Go into a Bear Market Historically, when the S&P 500 falls 10% without entering a bear market, it’s a potential buying opportunity. Since 1950, it has always been higher 6 and 12 months later, with a median 12-month return of 15.2%. Image: Carson Investment Research
How Often Does a Correction Turn into a Bear Market? Historically, a 10% correction rarely leads to a 20% bear market without economic downturns, earnings declines, or rate hikes. With no very serious adverse indicators currently, a bear market seems unlikely in the near term. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets The sell-in-May effect may be more relevant in bear markets. In bull markets, it may be seen as a missed opportunity for potential gains, given the positive momentum and upward trends typically observed in the market. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 – Secular Bull and Bear Markets The strong performance of the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024 could be seen as a clear indication of a more sustained secular bull market, potentially extending until the late 2020s and early 2030s. Image: BofA Global Research Click the Image to Enlarge
Structural Bull and Bear Markets Structural bear markets can be very painful for investors, as they can lead to prolonged periods of market decline and economic hardship. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Peak-to-Trough Declines in Historical Bear Markets Since 1929 A new bull market in U.S. stocks has officially begun, marking the end of the bear market. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Bear Market – List of Indicators That Have Typically Occured Before Market Bottom Only 50% of signposts have been triggered vs. 80% before prior market bottoms. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy Click the Image to Enlarge
Recessionary Bear Markets – S&P 500 Total Return Recessionary bear market lows can present good buying opportunities for long-term investors. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Fed Funds Rate vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows Fed rate cuts are historically not bullish for the S&P 500. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee