Bear Market Risk Indicator and MSCI World Subsequent 5-Year Total Return The Bear Market Risk Indicator suggests a low single digit returns for global equities during next 5 years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Bear Markets and Recessions In recent history, equity bear markets tend to occur six months before a recession, and when no one is looking for them. Image: BCA Research
GS Bear Market Risk Indicator The GS Bear Market Risk Indicator points to fading risk, but the current level is still high anf suggests low returns. A grey line shows a bear market and/or a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percent of BofA Bear Market Signposts Triggered 79% of BofA bear market signposts were triggered on October 10, 2018 vs. 53% currently. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
BofA Bear Market Signposts Now, 10 bear market signposts have been triggered vs. 15 on 10/18 market peak. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy Click the Image to Enlarge
60/40 Portfolio – Bull and Bear Markets This is the longest bull market for balanced equity/bond portfolios in over a century, without a 10% total return drawdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment
MSCI ACWI Index – Bull and Bear Market As Morgan Stanley points out, this is the “unsatisfying bear market”, difficult for both bulls and bears. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Projecting the Bull and Bear Market If a US-China trade deal is reached, this chart suggests a rally to the long-term bullish trend line at 3300. Image: Real Investment Advice
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets Excellent chart showing that inflation-adjusted bull markets are almost completely wiped out by the subsequent bear market. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real S&P 500 Total Return and Bear Markets Very good chart showing the real S&P 500 total return and the time frame to recover from major bear markets, since 1900. Image: Real Investment Advice