U.S. Equity Bear Markets and Recessions

U.S. Equity Bear Markets and Recessions In recent history, equity bear markets tend to occur six months before a recession, and when no one is looking for them. Image: BCA Research

GS Bear Market Risk Indicator

GS Bear Market Risk Indicator The GS Bear Market Risk Indicator points to fading risk, but the current level is still high anf suggests low returns. A grey line shows a bear market and/or a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Percent of BofA Bear Market Signposts Triggered

Percent of BofA Bear Market Signposts Triggered 79% of BofA bear market signposts were triggered on October 10, 2018 vs. 53% currently. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy

BofA Bear Market Signposts

BofA Bear Market Signposts Now, 10 bear market signposts have been triggered vs. 15 on 10/18 market peak. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy Click the Image to Enlarge

60/40 Portfolio – Bull and Bear Markets

60/40 Portfolio – Bull and Bear Markets This is the longest bull market for balanced equity/bond portfolios in over a century, without a 10% total return drawdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment

MSCI ACWI Index – Bull and Bear Market

MSCI ACWI Index – Bull and Bear Market As Morgan Stanley points out, this is the “unsatisfying bear market”, difficult for both bulls and bears. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Projecting the Bull and Bear Market

Projecting the Bull and Bear Market If a US-China trade deal is reached, this chart suggests a rally to the long-term bullish trend line at 3300. Image: Real Investment Advice

Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets

Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets Excellent chart showing that inflation-adjusted bull markets are almost completely wiped out by the subsequent bear market. Image: Real Investment Advice

Real S&P 500 Total Return and Bear Markets

Real S&P 500 Total Return and Bear Markets Very good chart showing the real S&P 500 total return and the time frame to recover from major bear markets, since 1900. Image: Real Investment Advice