Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) High valuations in U.S. and global equity markets today often indicate a risk of lower future returns, unless earnings growth accelerates enough to justify these prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio vs. MSCI World Ex-U.S. Forward P/E Ratio U.S. equities currently trade at roughly a 50% premium over international stocks, fueled by stronger earnings growth, greater profitability, and investors’ willingness to pay extra for these advantages. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US Despite rebounding after the tariff pause, the S&P 500 has not regained global equity leadership; European and Asian stocks have outperformed in 2025 due to better valuations and more stable policies. Image: Bloomberg
MSCI All-Country World Index and RSI (14) Signs of overheating are emerging in global stocks, with technical and flow indicators nearing thresholds that have previously triggered sell signals. Image: Bloomberg
Global Stocks – MSCI ACWI Index Resilient economic data, a softer stance on tariffs, and optimism in technology sectors have driven global stocks to new highs, even as trade jitters persist. Image: Bloomberg
Equities – MSCI U.S./RoW Distance from 200-DMA The MSCI U.S./RoW distance from the 200-DMA highlights a major interruption to the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism and reinforces the need for global diversification in equity portfolios. Image: Bloomberg
MSCI AC World Calendar Year Returns vs. Intra-Year Declines Despite median intra-year drops of 15%, the global equity index ended positively in 34 of the past 45 years—highlighting the value of long-term investing over reacting to short-term volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI AC World – Bear Market Rallies Since the 1980s, there have been 19 global bear market rallies, lasting 44 days on average with MSCI AC World returns of 10–15%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – MSCI World 12-Month Forward PE The current global stock market valuation, with a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 17.2, is relatively high compared to its 20-year median. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI Ex-US Developed World Stock Price Index Relative to MSCI US Stock Price Index vs. US Real Dollar Index There is often an inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and international stock markets, meaning that a peak in the dollar could make international stocks more appealing to investors. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research