Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) The U.S. rally is still powered by tech and AI, but stretched valuations and bubbling concerns leave markets on edge, exposed to sharp reversals if confidence wavers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
MSCI AC World: 10-Year Annualized Total Return Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10-year annual return of 7.7% in USD for global stocks — a solid long-term outlook, though shy of the boom years’ pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further if geopolitical tensions cool. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Valuation – MSCI World 12-Month Forward PE With valuations at 19.7 forward P/E, global stocks look expensive — not dot‑com crazy, but not exactly a bargain either. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI ACWI Index and Best Earnings-Per-Share With stocks priced for perfection and earnings forecasts at record highs, even a mild miss could put the market’s rally on the ropes. Image: Bloomberg
12-Month Forward ROE Ranges for Different MSCI Regions A higher ROE points to stronger profitability—and often justifies a premium—but U.S. equity valuations also hinge on growth expectations, risk sentiment, liquidity, and investor psychology. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Gold vs. S&P 500 vs. MSCI World $4,000 gold isn’t just a headline—it’s the latest move in a powerhouse rally that has left equities in the dust since the millennium. Image: Bloomberg
Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – S&P 500 vs. MSCI ACWI vs. Nasdaq 100 The Fed cutting interest rates while stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing creates a bullish setup for equities, boosting investor optimism about future returns. Image: Bloomberg
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Elevated P/E ratios in most MSCI World sectors—when compared to historical averages—indicate strong investor optimism fueled by positive earnings expectations and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research