Valuation – Mega-Cap U.S. Tech Stocks (FAAMG) vs. MSCI World ex-US Could mega-cap U.S. stocks be in a bubble? Over the past 6 years, prices have increased five-fold, while earnings have only doubled. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Global Real M1 vs. MSCI World Total Return (Leading Indicator) Global real M1 suggests that 2021 could be a good year for risky assets. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Total Returns – Gold, Nasdaq and MSCI World ex-US With the Nasdaq at all-time high, markets expect a weak global growth, low inflation and a strong U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Global Breadth – MSCI ACWI and Global Advance-Decline Line of 73 Country Indices The chart suggests a bullish trend for the weekly global index level breadth. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – MSCI World P/E Global equity valuations appear expensive, even based on EPS including the recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI ACWI Value vs. Growth Relative Valuation and Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that value should outperform growth in the recovery phase. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Valuation – MSCI ACWI Index’s 12-Month Forward Price to Earnings The risk of a correction is rising, as global stocks continue to rally and become more expensive. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – P/E Premium of MSCI Growth vs. Value Indices The valuation premium of growth stocks vs. value stocks is close to an all-time high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fund Managers Sentiment and Global Stock Market Returns (MSCI ACWI) Are fund managers too bearish? Two-thirds of global fund managers say this is a bear market rally. Image: Hondo Tomasz