U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions Chart suggesting that there is little recession fear baked into U.S. high yield credit spreads at the moment. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads

U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads High-yield credit spreads are still below recession level (red line). A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession“

U.S. Treasuries Volatility Curve

U.S. Treasuries Volatility Curve Short-term periods of inversion have been followed by higher U.S. Treasuries yields and tighter credit spreads. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. High Yield

U.S. High Yield Credit spreads are fine. Could the market go wrong by predicting significant interest rate cuts? Image: Fidelity Investments

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle?

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​