A Widening of High Yield Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession Like a yield curve inversion and real interest rates above real GDP, a widening of high yield credit spreads is very useful to predict a recession. At the present time, the bond market is not concerned about credit risk.
High Yield Credit Spread and Move Index Does higher rate credit volatility imply a widening of high-yield spreads? Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
U.S. Recession Probability Based on Credit Spreads and Treasury Spreads This chart suggests that the recession probability is low, about 10% based on credit spreads. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads High-yield credit spreads are still below recession level (red line). A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession“
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Image: Credit Suisse
Interest Rates for Personal Loans and Credit Cards Diverge Due to the growing spread, many borrowers take out personal loans to pay off credit card debt. Image: Axios
U.S. Treasuries Volatility Curve Short-term periods of inversion have been followed by higher U.S. Treasuries yields and tighter credit spreads. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. High Yield Credit spreads are fine. Could the market go wrong by predicting significant interest rate cuts? Image: Fidelity Investments
Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…
