U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads

U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads High-yield credit spreads are still below recession level (red line). A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession“

U.S. Treasuries Volatility Curve

U.S. Treasuries Volatility Curve Short-term periods of inversion have been followed by higher U.S. Treasuries yields and tighter credit spreads. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. High Yield

U.S. High Yield Credit spreads are fine. Could the market go wrong by predicting significant interest rate cuts? Image: Fidelity Investments

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle?

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…