U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads

U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads High-yield credit spreads are still below recession level (red line). A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. See also “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession“

A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession

A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession Like a yield curve inversion and real interest rates above real GDP, a widening of credit spreads is very useful to predict a recession. If a recession were to occur today, it won’t be the Fed’s fault because real interest rates are near…

U.S. High Yield

U.S. High Yield Credit spreads are fine. Could the market go wrong by predicting significant interest rate cuts? Picture source: Fidelity Investments

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle?

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. See also “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…