U.S. Cycle – Spread Between Conference Board Consumer Confidence and UMich Surveys Morgan Stanley expects a “mid-cycle transition”, with a 10%-plus correction for the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence Composite vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 and U.S. consumer confidence are telling very different stories Image: Pictet Asset Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence U.S. consumer confidence falls in August, as more and more companies announce layoffs. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is still high compared to previous bear market bottoms. Image: Tomasz Hońdo
U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment A tight U.S. labor market and low interest rates should continue to support U.S. consumer confidence and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence Leads U.S. Unemployment Chart suggesting that U.S. consumer confidence leads U.S. unemployment by three months. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
MSCI World Index vs. OECD Unemployment Rate and U.S. Consumer Confidence Chart suggesting that OECD unemployment troughs and very confident U.S. consumers do not generally bode well for global equities. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence Relative to U.S. Business Confidence This chart shows one of the highest divergence between consumer confidence and business confidence, more than two standard deviations. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Lohman Econometrics
U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management