Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Image: Pictet…
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
Global Consumers (Housing and Retail) vs. Confidence (Soft Data) Chart showing the large divergence between global hard data and confidence (soft data). Confidence still refuses to rebound. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Consumers – Stock Prices and Income Expectations U.S. consumers are experiencing a notable rise in optimism regarding stock market returns for the next 12 months, but this may lead to disappointment as their outlook on income growth does not reflect the same enthusiasm. Image: Deutsche Bank
Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Gloomy confidence expectations have historically not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy, which can potentially lead to reduced spending and investment. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Image: Credit Suisse
Conference Board 1-Year Expectation Stock Prices Increase vs. S&P 500 The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence survey reveals the sharpest two-month drop in stock market expectations—a level of pessimism that historically signals a contrarian buying opportunity. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Ranking Developed Economies by Key Growth Metrics Currently, the United States is ranked numer one in real GDP, core CPI and consumer confidence. Image: Arbor Research & Trading
University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch