Real Fed Funds Rates Are Very Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles Today, Real Fed funds rates are very low compared to previous business cycles and well below real GDP. If history helps us to…
Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession? When the stock market is VERY overvalued before a recession, it tends to be VERY undervalued. Like the swing of a pendulum, or the stretching of…
Why the US Stock Market Was Overvalued by 14.2% on Oct. 1, 2018 vs 7.7% Today? Because the value of the forecast changes as time passes (blue dotted line). The US stock market short-term forecast (S&P…
A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession Like a yield curve inversion and real interest rates above real GDP, a widening of credit spreads is very useful to predict a…
How’s the US Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of…
