Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 79.3% in May. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Weekly U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity funds and ETFs saw weekly inflows of $0.92 billion. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 EPS Beat vs. Consensus Estimate Since 2000 Corporate America’s ability to maintain profit margins was again demonstrated by a robust 1Q 2023 earnings report, beating expectations by a wide margin. Image: BofA US…

Interest Rates – Probability of Fed Rate Hike The market is pricing in a higher terminal rate, which remains a headwind for risk assets. Image: The Daily Shot

S&P 500 YTD >7% on Day 100 and What Happened the Rest of the Year Historically, when the S&P 500 Index has recorded a gain over 7% on day 100, it has tended to signal…

S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Despite the weakening economic growth, analysts are maintaining their optimism regarding earnings. Image: Real Investment Advice

Flow – % Share of Rolling One-Month ETF Inflows ETF flows show that investors are still not risk-on just yet. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC Click the Image to Enlarge

U.S. Equity Mutual Funds – Cash and Liquid Assets Cash holdings of mutual funds are going down. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index stands at 65.51, active…

Global Equity Valuation Indicators Is it still wise for investors to favor global ex-U.S. vs. U.S. equities, value vs. growth and small vs. large? Image: Topdown Charts