U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation)

U.S. Misery Index (Unemployment Rate + Core Inflation) The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun. Because both inflation and unemployment are very low, the U.S. misery index (unemployment rate + core inflation) is approaching all-time low. That’s good news for Americans, because it brings stability to the life of the…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation

Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles?

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Inflation – Core PCE and Forecasts

Inflation – Core PCE and Forecasts The decline in U.S. core PCE inflation from the elevated levels observed in 2022 has significant implications for monetary policy, consumer behavior, and the broader economy. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Core PCE Inflation U.S. core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, has already fallen below 2% over a six-month period, which is positive news. Image: BofA Global Research

Contributions to Year-on-Year U.S. Core PCE Inflation

Contributions to Year-on-Year U.S. Core PCE Inflation Goldman Sachs maintains its projection for a decrease in U.S. core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which could have significant implications for the broader economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research