S&P 500 Average Return for Each Day This spreadsheet shows the S&P 500 average return for each day from 1950 to 2018. “History never repeats itself but it rhymes” –Mark Twain. October 28 has been historically the best day of the year for the S&P 500. You may also like “S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern.” Image: Ryan…
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have averaged annual gains of 13.7% under a Republican president and 17% under a Democratic president when Congress was divided. Investors have welcomed the gridlock, which keeps sweeping policy shifts in check. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average Annual Real Return over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE Valuation High starting CAPE valuations have often preceded disappointing returns for U.S. stocks, creating a particularly risky backdrop for investors just entering retirement. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High When markets hit record highs, many investors step back. That caution has often come at a cost: buying into strength has historically delivered better returns than buying on an average day. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns October has a strong track record in midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain since 1950 and finishing higher nearly 74% of the time. With investors already leaning bearish, that seasonal tailwind could help fuel a year-end rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a month is a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – September Average Monthly Return Since 1928, September has been the only month to post an average loss, falling 1.1%, or 1.5% in midterm years. Its second half also contains the calendar’s weakest two-week stretch. Could history repeat? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes at the current level, US equities went on to deliver negative real returns, averaging roughly −2.6% a year. Image: Real…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 September has earned its reputation as the S&P 500’s worst month, the only one with a negative average return since 1950. Then comes the final quarter, historically one of the market’s most rewarding periods. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image: Real Investment Advice
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without one, the 12‑month forward return has averaged 16.4%. Fear, in this case, has been a poor strategist. Image: Real Investment…