3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP

This chart suggests that the 1y3m-3m slope leads U.S. GDP.

The 1y3m-3m slope has turned down sharply and is informative for year-head growth.

Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

3-Month Rate 1-Year Forward vs. 3-Month Leads U.S. GDP