VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches, driven by heightened market uncertainty. Image: BofA Global Research
Seasonality Trends in MSCI AC World Index (Global Equities) July has historically been a strong month for global equities, offering opportunities for investors to capture potential gains. Image: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy
S&P 500 EPS vs. Trend Do consensus EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 accurately reflect an optimistic outlook, or are they overly optimistic? Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 – Margin Debt vs. Long-Term Trend A rise in the ratio of margin debt to the S&P 500 market cap could indicate a bullish outlook for the U.S. stock market, potentially signaling confidence in the market’s upward trajectory. Image: Topdown Charts
Earnings – S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Net Income Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate Deviation from Trend (Leading Indicator) The change in fed funds rate suggests an earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Cyclicals Earnings with Trend Are consensus earnings estimates far too optimistic? Image: Deutsche Bank
Small-Cap Stocks – S&P 500 Large-Cap Index vs S&P 600 Small-Cap Index Super Sector Weight Trends U.S. small-cap stocks could be under more pressure as U.S. GDP growth slows. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Index and Trend Line Support A drawdown to the long-term trendline from the 2009 lows would be painful for U.S. equity investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and Long Term Trend Line Should investors worry that the S&P 500 is very extended from its long term trend line? Image: Richardson Wealth
S&P 500 Index and Exponential Growth Trend Line Should investors worry that the S&P 500 Index is very extended from its exponential growth trend line? Image: Real Investment Advice
Put to Call Trend Deviation Model vs. S&P 500 The put to call ratio (deviation from trend) is still bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Longview Economics