U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims After Yield Curve Inversion Is there a difference this time in the association between an inverted yield curve, usually indicating economic decline, and the potential for job losses? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. 10-Year UST Yield and 3-Month UST Yield A bull steepener occurs when the U.S. unemployment rate increases. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Recession – U.S. Personal Saving Rate vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising personal saving rates tend to be associated with economic downturns or recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows The peak in unemployment can be used as a signal for the end of a recessionary bear market in U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
First Major Fed Rate Cut – U.S. CPI vs. Unemployment Rate Can the Fed cut interest rates in response to the bank crisis? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Unemployment Rate Before, During and at the End of Recessions The U.S. unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It is not a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Employment It is important to keep a close eye on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for any changes in U.S. employment.