U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…
U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket Another chart showing the wealth disparities before and after the Great Recession. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Image: Axios
BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.” Image: S&P Global Fixed Income Research
New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…
Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…
The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion The U.S. corporate bond debt rated ‘BBB’ exceeds $3 trillion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. Any drop in the credit ratings could amplify the next recession: many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds.…
What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…
The Top Wealthiest Countries in 2018 The United States is the world’s largest wealth market with $60.7 trillion in 2018. Inequality: you may also like “Lower Incomes Paid the Highest Price.” Image: Visual Capitalist
One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…
How Average Americans Spend their Money? The average American household – $53,708 in spending. That’s 73% of total income. Image: Visual Capitalist
Is U.S. Household Debt a Problem? Not really, right now. Actually, the level of household debt alone does not tell an accurate picture of the current situation. However, U.S. household debt to GDP is much lower, U.S. household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income and U.S. household financial obligations as a percent…