U.S. Dollar and Trump Job Approval Poll Average (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the U.S. dollar could rise, if it continues to track Trump’s approval rating. Image: Jeffrey Kleintop
Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX Is more volatility expected ahead? This great chart suggests that the Fed funds target rate leads VIX by 2 years. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years.” Image: Bloomberg, Jeffrey Kleintop
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth This chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year and U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. LEI suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019. It is also a good recession indicator. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI rose 2.7% year-over-year and suggests there is no imminent recession on the horizon. Image: LPL Research