Search Results for: trade war

Trade War – Probability of a US-China Trade Deal The market-implied probability of a US-China trade deal rises to only 19%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth Assuming no further escalation, the trade war drag on U.S. growth is expected to peak at about -0.4% in the second half of 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The Trade War Effect on Crude Oil This chart shows Chinese imports of crude oil from U.S.. Image: Capital Economics

Economic Impacts of the Trade War (Global GDP) This chart shows that the expected economic impacts of the trade war should peak in 2021. Image: Bloomberg

Concern about the Trade War 58% of American firms reported negative impacts from the trade war, versus 31% of non-American firms. Ouch! Image: American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore

Which Equity Market Has Outperformed Since the Beginning of the Trade War? The US equity market is the winner the last two years. Most other major equity markets have experienced significant declines. Image: Fundstrat

Who Has the Most To Lose in US-China Trade War? The tariffs are no threat and China has more to lose economically in a trade war. Those numbers are estimates but in reality wrong ones and far too high, according to Ken Fisher. Image: Oxford Economics

S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio vs. MSCI World Ex-U.S. Forward P/E Ratio U.S. equities currently trade at roughly a 50% premium over international stocks, fueled by stronger earnings growth, greater profitability, and investors’ willingness to pay extra for these advantages. Image: Bloomberg

Valuation – U.S. Equities vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward PE Ratios U.S. equities trade at historically high valuations versus global peers, with the premium widening. While strong fundamentals support this, it also poses risks if growth expectations decline or macroeconomic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank