New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990

When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook
is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted yield curve.

Investors should therefore pay attention to the yield curve and the duration of the inversion.

Image: Morgan Stanley

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990