Search Results for: high yield

Net Positioning Among Asset Managers in Treasury Futures Contracts Investors expect higher long-term bond yields as the economy improves in the future. Image: Financial Times

Cumulative Bond Flows Since 2009 Flows into high-yield funds had been out of favor in this cycle. Is this good news? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Dollar and S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Higher bond yields reduce the S&P 500 equity risk premium, which weakens the U.S. dollar. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Treasuries Volatility Curve Short-term periods of inversion have been followed by higher U.S. Treasuries yields and tighter credit spreads. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER

Valuation and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates, maybe for a long time. The chart shows that an aging population affects yields. You may also like “Debt and Demographics.” Image: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Bond Market Hedged and Unhedged Investors are frantically searching for yield, knowing that 25% of all bonds in the world trade at negative interest rates. Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…