Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long as there are no concrete signs of tariff reductions or de-escalation in trade tensions. Image: Deutche Bank
Foreign Ownership of U.S. Equities by Region European investors, major holders of U.S. stocks, could impact valuations if trade tensions rise, potentially shifting focus to European markets benefiting from fiscal stimulus and increased defense spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Liquidity Premium and IG Bonds The spread between low liquid and high liquid IG bonds is widening, despite the rally and the belief of an improvement in US-China trade tensions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China’s Global Acquisitions Global acquisitions by Chinese companies continue to fall, due to tight credit conditions and US-China trade tensions. Image: Financial Times
Buybacks Are the Source of the Rally in the Stock Market since 2009 But as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms, stock buybacks declined last quarter. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 Share Buybacks by Quarter Share buybacks have contracted for the first time since 2017, as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms. Image: The Wall Street Journal
World Exports Are Contracting – May 2019 Nowadays, exports of goods and services represent 29% of global GDP and trade tensions are causing a contraction in world exports. Image: First Eagle Investment Management
China Exports China’s exports increased by 2.6% since October 2023, mainly due to demand from regions outside the U.S. However, challenges persist, including weak domestic demand and geopolitical tensions that may impact future trade. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. – China Competition (Focus Risk) The United States and China will eventually conclude a trade agreement, but tensions between the two countries are structural and won’t go away any time soon. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute