Fed Funds Rate Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to implement two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, with an additional cut projected for 2026. How will the Fed navigate potential increases in trade tariffs under the Trump administration? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Futures Markets are still pricing in Fed rate cuts for 2025, but expectations have been scaled back due to persistent inflation concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM January has historically seen increased investor activity in equity markets, resulting in strong inflows, as the start of a new year often inspires renewed investment strategies and goals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Flows from Global Investors into DM and EM funds In 2024, equity funds in developed and emerging markets have experienced substantial inflows from global investors, reflecting a resurgence of confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Money Market Funds Following the Fed’s first rate cut, U.S. money market funds typically experience outflows within 12 months as investors rebalance portfolios and reassess risk in response to changing interest rates and market conditions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed has revised its 2025 projections, now anticipating only two rate cuts instead of four, with future reductions dependent on the progress made in managing inflation. Image: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy while keeping inflation in check. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg
Share of U.S. Equity Mutual Fund and ETF AUM Passive U.S. equity funds surpassed active ones in 2020. Investors prefer them due to their lower fees, potential tax benefits, and the belief that active fund managers cannot consistently outperform the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Flows into Money Market Funds Investor interest in U.S. government money market funds continues to be strong, driven by their current attractive yields, high level of safety and liquidity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research