Equity – Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors Compared to historical standards, a 52% allocation to equities among investors is considered high, which increases the potential for volatility and losses, particularly during a market downturn. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds vs. VIX Given the lag effect of Fed rate hikes on the U.S. economy, should investors expect a near-future rise in the VIX, or is this time different? Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate Expectations Despite the initial anticipation of multiple rate cuts in 2024 as suggested by the Fed’s “dot plot,” the current market sentiment indicates a more reserved outlook, with fewer rate cuts in 2024. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
4-Week Flow Pace into Bitcoin Funds There has been a significant decline in the 4-week flow pace into Bitcoin funds. Image: J.P. Morgan
Interest Rates – U.S. Federal Funds Rate Expectations BofA expects a 3.5-3.75% terminal rate in this cutting cycle, up 50bp from their previous forecast. This suggests a need to tighten monetary policy to control inflation and maintain economic balance. Image: BofA Global Research
Money Market Fund Assets vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Money market funds often experience outflows 12 months after the initial rate cut. This occurs as investors reallocate their investments and adjust their risk exposure in response to fluctuations in interest rates and market conditions. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Cumulative Annual Flows to IG Bond Funds Investment-Grade (IG) corporate bond funds have experienced a surge in investor interest and confidence this year, resulting in robust inflows into this asset class. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Rate Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to implement three rate cuts in 2024, down from its earlier projection of four rate cuts, in response to elevated inflation data and evolving economic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. Fed Funds During a rate hiking campaign, bullish sentiment tends to increase initially, but ultimately ends badly. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Implied Policy Rates – Federal Funds Futures Market expectations for Fed policy have swung dramatically over the past few months. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management