1-Day Post-Reporting Performance vs. S&P 500 on EPS and Sales Surprise Companies that exceeded both sales and EPS expectations outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.4ppt the following day, which is the strongest performance since 4Q2018 and considerably higher than the historical average of 1.5ppt. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings Surprise A strong 7% earnings surprise in the first quarter indicates robust performance by S&P 500 companies, which is likely to have a positive impact on investor confidence. Image: BofA Global Research
Rolling 12-Month EPS Surprise vs. ISM PMI Are markets too optimistic? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Trade-Weighted Dollar vs. G10 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Will the U.S. dollar trend weaker in 2023? Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Earnings Surprise % Recent earnings surprises are slightly positive. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 60 Day Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Is the worst of the bond sell-off over? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. S&P 500 12-Month Earnings Surprise U.S. earnings revisions suggest negative economic surprises. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Positive Sales Surprises Should U.S. equity investors expect small positive sales surprises ahead? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Should investors expect U.S. Treasuries to rally? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Inflation Surprise – Economic Surprise The risk of stagflation in the euro area is increasing significantly. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond