Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth The P/E premium reflects higher expected EPS growth, supported by a strong current correlation between EPS growth forecasts and P/E multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. GDP Consensus Forecast The U.S. exceptionalism narrative appears fragile. With expectations already high, there’s little room for positive surprises, and weaker economic data could hurt the dollar due to investors’ skewed positioning. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Consensus Quarterly Earnings Actual and Consensus Estimates Despite a promising earnings outlook that could sustain market strength, investors would be wise to consider potential risks and already stretched market valuations. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Difference Between Realized and Consensus Estimate of S&P 500 EPS While S&P 500 companies continue to beat EPS estimates, indicating underlying strength, recent data suggests this trend is moderating compared to previous quarters Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Historical FY2 EPS Revisions vs. Consensus EPS Recent downward revisions in S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2024-25 reflect a cautious approach from analysts, primarily driven by economic uncertainties. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Sell Side Consensus Indicator The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ equity allocation recommendations, has remained unchanged in September. The current level suggests that the S&P 500 may see positive gains over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
Global EPS Model vs. Consensus EPS BofA indicates a trend of slowing growth in its global earnings per share model, reflecting a shift toward a more cautious economic outlook. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Consensus Earnings Expectations According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 11.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, which would be the highest such growth rate in almost three years. Image: Yahoo Finance