Difference Between Realized and Consensus Estimate of S&P 500 EPS While S&P 500 companies continue to beat EPS estimates, indicating underlying strength, recent data suggests this trend is moderating compared to previous quarters Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Historical FY2 EPS Revisions vs. Consensus EPS Recent downward revisions in S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2024-25 reflect a cautious approach from analysts, primarily driven by economic uncertainties. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Sell Side Consensus Indicator The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ equity allocation recommendations, has remained unchanged in September. The current level suggests that the S&P 500 may see positive gains over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
Global EPS Model vs. Consensus EPS BofA indicates a trend of slowing growth in its global earnings per share model, reflecting a shift toward a more cautious economic outlook. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision 2024 EPS estimates reflect a typical non-recessionary trend, indicating a favorable market outlook and the possibility of strong corporate profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Expectations According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 11.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, which would be the highest such growth rate in almost three years. Image: Yahoo Finance
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to see stronger earnings growth in the second half of 2024, driven by resilient economic conditions and sales growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – Indexed Consensus NTM Net Income The widening gap in expected net income between mega-cap tech stocks and the bottom 493 stocks of the S&P 500 highlights the concentration risk and volatility associated with the dominance of these tech stocks in the index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Difference Between Initial Release and Consensus Expectations of U.S. GDP U.S. GDP was one of the biggest upside surprise compared to consensus expectations, highlighting the challenges of accurately forecasting economic trends and outcomes. Image: BofA Global Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Excluding the one-offs, consensus estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 have experienced just a slightly more pronounced reduction compared to previous periods, which can be seen as a positive sign. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation