U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In April, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.34% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions

Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions Throughout history, gold has been considered a safe haven during market declines. Since 2015, its correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened, making it more likely for gold to move in sync with U.S. stocks during market downturns. Image: Real Investment Advice

FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely

FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely The outlook among FMS investors regarding the possibility of a global recession in the near future is characterized by a much greater sense of optimism. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

S&P 500 After Initial Fed Rate Cuts Outside Of Recession

S&P 500 After Initial Fed Rate Cuts Outside Of Recession Outside of recessions, U.S. stocks have tended to rise after the Fed’s first rate cut, with an average gain of 15% within 12 months. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle

U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle Based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles, the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains a topic of discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank

Oil Prices and U.S. Recessions

Oil Prices and U.S. Recessions The elections in 2024 across highly populated countries could have significant implications for geopolitics and the global economy. Political leaders should work towards calming geopolitics to prevent a surge in oil prices. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Recessions

U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Recessions The U.S. 10Y-3M Treasury yield curve has been a reliable recession risk indicator, but every economic situation is unique and historical patterns may not repeat exactly. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy