Search Results for: recession

U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle A recession in the United States is still likely based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles. Image: Deutsche Bank

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Can the Federal Reserve successfully achieve a soft landing? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -5.91% YoY in August, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession was on the horizon in the United States.

FMS Recession Expectations Only 31% of FMS investors do not expext the global economy to enter recession in the next 18 months. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Recession – Percentage of U.S. Treasury Yield Curves Inverted The risk of a U.S. recession cannot be ruled out. Image: Charles Schwab

Professional Forecasters Probability of Recession U.S. recession fears among professional forecasters remain elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Recession – U.S. Personal Saving Rate vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising personal saving rates tend to be associated with economic downturns or recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Duration and Magnitude of Major Nonrecessionary S&P 500 Index Declines According to Morgan Stanley, the current bear market rally in U.S. equities remains within historical norms. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions The U.S. ISM Composite Index does not indicate a recession. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Performance Around Recessions In the year preceding a U.S. recession, the average performance of the S&P 500 is historically flat. Image: Deutsche Bank