When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession? The majority of FMS investors do not currently expect a U.S. recession in the next 18 months, while only 8% foresee one in the second half of 2024 and 30% predict a recession in 2025. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Probability of U.S. Recession within a Year Based on the tight spread between the S&P 500 and BBB-rated corporate bonds, the risk of a recession in the United States within one year appears low. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 predicts a recession likelihood of 0% in the United States. This indicates that the U.S. economy is expected to continue growing and expanding, without any major economic downturn on the horizon. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession The decline in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is viewed as a positive sign, which could influence market sentiment and investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs’ outlook on the U.S. economy is optimistic, indicating a favorable sentiment and a low 15% probability of a recession occurring within the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization The S&P 500 is a reliable recession predictor, often peaking and declining before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially acknowledges a recession, usually within 6 to 16 months. Image: Real Investment Advice
Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions Throughout history, gold has been considered a safe haven during market declines. Since 2015, its correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened, making it more likely for gold to move in sync with U.S. stocks during market downturns. Image: Real Investment Advice
FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely The outlook among FMS investors regarding the possibility of a global recession in the near future is characterized by a much greater sense of optimism. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 After Initial Fed Rate Cuts Outside Of Recession Outside of recessions, U.S. stocks have tended to rise after the Fed’s first rate cut, with an average gain of 15% within 12 months. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank