Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median At 2.7%, short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is on the high side, but the buildup appears tied to portfolio hedging, not a wave of bearish bets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – MSCI Index Market Capitalization Relative to M2 U.S. market capitalization has rocketed since late 2022, pushing valuations to levels that M2 growth can’t justify on its own. There’s more at play now than just liquidity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Emerging markets are back in play, lifted by a softer U.S. dollar, easing global rates, and fresh reforms from Beijing to New Delhi. The rally’s staying power, though, hinges on how long the dollar stays soft. Image: Bloomberg
Valuations Across EM Markets The valuation gap in emerging markets is striking: India trades at a premium, whereas China’s pricing feels more in line with its history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until late in the year. Image: Topdown Charts
Share of Global Market Capitalization The U.S., with barely 4% of the world’s people, dominates 62% of global equity value. Its innovation engines continue to magnetize foreign money. Like it or not, global markets still move to America’s rhythm. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability With the market pricing a 16% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, recession risk remains modest and broadly in line with a moderate-risk environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Net Weekly Global Flows: Equity vs. Money Markets Strong equity inflows and shrinking money market assets show investors are pulling cash out of safe havens and putting it back to work in stocks, giving new life to the “cash on the sidelines” story. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. earnings as growth concerns deepen, raising the risk of near-term pressure on stock valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Markets – Average Daily Change: SPY, TLT, LQD, HYG, IBIT Is “Sell America” becoming the new market mantra? Europe could rattle investors if it strikes back with tariffs and its own trade bazooka. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Returns A wave of sector rotation has lifted the S&P 500 equal-weighted index to record highs, tightening its gap with the market-cap gauge as investors pull back from tech. Image: Real Investment Advice