Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On

Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227(R² = 0.9787) You may also like “30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield.” Image: Leonard Kiefer

Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25%

Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25% This chart shows the average consumer price increase in percentage points for US consumers/firms after an increase in US import tariffs by 25 percentage points. Trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Image: Ifo…

Stock Market Forecasting Models vs. US Stock Market

Stock Market Forecasting Models vs. US Stock Market – Growth of $1,000 As an example, the chart shows the growth of $1,000 since 1970, between the stock market forecasting models and the US stock market (compound return before taxes, fees and transactions costs – unleveraged, simulated long & short trades – quarterly basis & logarithmic…

Does Bitcoin Have Intrinsic Value?

Does Bitcoin Have Intrinsic Value? Well, although skeptics say Bitcoin has no value, JP Morgan says Bitcoins have “intrinsic value” using the cost of production approach following Hayes. See: Adam Hayes, A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin (March 19, 2015).

Increased Productivity Boosts Profits Margins

Increased Productivity Boosts Profits Margins When a company increases productivity, it makes more products without increasing costs. Higher productivity can improve the company’s profit margin and total profits. During this business cycle, productivity has increased at an average rate of 1.3% year-over-year. But productivity has been cut in half since the previous business cycle. You…

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57%

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies

Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies Tariff man is back! Keep in mind that trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Trump’s trade war hurts the U.S. economy and stocks.