U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…

Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector

Global Manufacturing vs. Service Sector This chart shows that the global manufacturing sector is in recession, while the service sector is doing well. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Financial Services Exports Around the World

Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Image: howmuch.net

The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good

The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good In recent history, this chart suggests that poor ability of U.S. companies to service their debt leads to recession. That’s not the case today. This indicator suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.

Market Capitalization as % of S&P 500

Market Capitalization as % of S&P 500 Should investors underweight the tech, communications services and consumer discretionary sectors? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee

Flexible and Sticky Inflation

Flexible and Sticky Inflation Sticky inflation (core services) remains elevated while flexible inflation (core goods) is declining. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis