Financial Services Exports Around the World In 2018, the total global exports in financial services was $489.8 billion. The US, UK and Luxembourg make up 54% of the world’s financial services exports. Image: howmuch.net
The Ability of U.S. Companies to Service their Debt is Good In recent history, this chart suggests that poor ability of U.S. companies to service their debt leads to recession. That’s not the case today. This indicator suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) The Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services sectors have been the primary sources of stock buyback announcements in the US market over the past three months. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Number of S&P 500 Constituents Mentioning Tariffs on Earnings Calls “Tariff Man’s” return has sparked a surge in tariff discussions during S&P 500 earnings calls, potentially exceeding Q2 2018 levels. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1-Month Change in Sector Wise Short Interest Should investors continue to underweight the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Capitalization as % of S&P 500 Should investors underweight the tech, communications services and consumer discretionary sectors? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. Wage Inflation – Average Hourly Earnings: Leisure and Hospitality Wage inflation is building in the service industry in a context of labor shortages. Image: BofA Global Research
Quarterly Returns for All Public Pensions Plans Public pension plans lost a median of 13.2% in the first quarter of 2020. It was the lowest return in about 40 years. Image: Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service
U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research