Quarterly Returns for All Public Pensions Plans

Quarterly Returns for All Public Pensions Plans Public pension plans lost a median of 13.2% in the first quarter of 2020. It was the lowest return in about 40 years. Image: Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Image: Oxford Economics

Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys

Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Image: Sampension

U.S. Total Private Employment

U.S. Total Private Employment Another interesting chart showing that the U.S. job market is still strong for the time being, although it is slowing. The U.S. services jobs (blue lines) appear to be in fairly good shape. Image: Robin Brooks

World Exports Are Contracting – May 2019

World Exports Are Contracting – May 2019 Nowadays, exports of goods and services represent 29% of global GDP and trade tensions are causing a contraction in world exports. Image: First Eagle Investment Management

How to Get Inflation?

How to Get Inflation? Mainly, inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Nominal GDP = M x V = P x T M = quantity of money V = velocity of circulation of money P = level of prices T =…

How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market?

How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…

Is U.S. Household Debt a Problem?

Is U.S. Household Debt a Problem? Not really, right now. Actually, the level of household debt alone does not tell an accurate picture of the current situation. However, U.S. household debt to GDP is much lower, U.S. household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income  and U.S. household financial obligations as a percent…