U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…

Oil – Brent Fair-Value Model

Oil – Brent Fair-Value Model J.P. Morgan expects Brent oil prices to exit the year at $86/bbl. Image: J.P. Morgan

Valuation – S&P 500 Company Actual vs. Modeled FY2 P/E Ratio

Valuation – S&P 500 Company Actual vs. Modeled FY2 P/E Ratio Valuations for the Magnificent Seven now sit slightly below modeled fair value, especially in light of their robust fundamentals and earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20

Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg

Valuation – Equal-Weight S&P 500 P/E Multiple

Valuation – Equal-Weight S&P 500 P/E Multiple According to Goldman Sachs, the equal-weight S&P 500 P/E multiple is currently 13% above fair value. This suggests that stocks in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index may be relatively more expensive compared to their earnings potential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research