Search Results for: unemployment

U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. 10-Year UST Yield and 3-Month UST Yield A bull steepener occurs when the U.S. unemployment rate increases. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Recession – U.S. Personal Saving Rate vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Rising personal saving rates tend to be associated with economic downturns or recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows The peak in unemployment can be used as a signal for the end of a recessionary bear market in U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee

First Major Fed Rate Cut – U.S. CPI vs. Unemployment Rate Can the Fed cut interest rates in response to the bank crisis? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Unemployment Rate Before, During and at the End of Recessions The U.S. unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It is not a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank

GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A steepening U.S. yield curve has preceded recessions. Will the U.S. unemployment rate start to rise by the end of 2023? Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 Forward EPS vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Weakness in S&P 500 earnings is a potential indicator of a higher U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Delinquencies, Personal Saving Rate and Unemployment Delinquencies in the United States are on the rise. Is a hard landing coming? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy