The Unemployment Rate since 1890

The U.S. Unemployment Rate since 1890 Highest level in 1934: 21.30% Lowest level in 1944: 1.20% Today: 3.60% Picture source: Bianco Research

How Does Education Affect the Unemployment Rate?

How Does Education Affect the Unemployment Rate? The chart below shows the unemployment rate by education and the importance of education for the unemployed. Picture source: Ben Casselman

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…

Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great?

Why the Unemployment Rate to 3.6% in April 2019 Is Not So Great? Well, the unemployment level is the lowest since 1969, but when we compare the level of unemployment plus people not in the labor force, to the level of employment, the picture is not so rosy. Ouch!

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019

U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969!  Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum and that’s good news. See how the U.S. productivity has increased under Trump. Picture source: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly jobless claims decreased to 209,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.14% of being unemployed in a given month in the United States.

Homeownership Disparity Deepens

Homeownership Disparity Deepens Since 1994, the gap between blacks and whites has widened, in part because starter-home prices have exploded, year after year. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans” and  “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket” and “Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks.” Picture Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election

S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC