ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator)

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“ Click the Picture to Enlarge

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Since 1975, in 6 of 11 instances, a recession did not occur when the ISM fell below 50 and remained above 45.5. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Chart showing that the S&P 500 continues to price in a strong rebound in the ISM,  from 49 to 54 (R = 0.62). Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows a good correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 49.1 in August. Keep in mind that it is a survey. PMI index of 50 (no expansion/contraction) suggests a flat S&P 500…