ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed Today, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index at 21.8 suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should remain above 50. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011 This chart shows a good correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. PMI index of 50 (no expansion/contraction) suggests a flat S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change. See also “Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index.”

Global PMI & US ISM Manufacturing Indices

Global PMI & US ISM Manufacturing Indices This chart shows that Global PMI Manufacturing Index leads US ISM Manufacturing Index by two months. Picture source: Capital Economics

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart shows that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This excellent chart shows that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It suggests that PMI could be below 50 in 3Q19, but above 60 in 2020. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC