Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 1.8% for 2019:Q3 as of September 13, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of September 13, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.28%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index declined, but labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. A negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

The Fed’s Treasury Holdings by Maturity

The Fed’s Treasury Holdings by Maturity Nice chart showing the Fed’s Treasury holdings by maturity before and after the financial crisis. Picture source: Reuters

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Rate Cuts Priced In and Recession

Fed Rate Cuts Priced In and Recession Insurance cuts or recessionary cuts? It usually doesn’t end well, when the bond market begins to price in more than three rate cuts over the next 6 months. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research