Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of July 19, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2020 imply an expected rate of only 1.69%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

Target Probabilities at the Fed’s July 31 Meeting

Target Probabilities at the Fed’s July 31 Meeting Today, traders see a 47.6% probability of a 25-bps rate cut and a 52.4% probability of a 50-bps rate cut at the Fed’s July 31 meeting. Picture source: CME Group

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending The chart shows real PCE around first Fed rate cut: recession vs. no recession. Fed rate cuts are more effective during a recession. Picture source: Ned Davis Research

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed Today, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index at 21.8 suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should remain above 50. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond