Keyword: fed

Expected Fed Funds Rate Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of 1.35%. Click the Image to Enlarge

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is now 1.8% for 2019:Q4. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

S&P 500 Returns and Fed Balance Sheet This chart suggests the positive relationship between the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and S&P 500 returns. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Fed’s Balance Sheet Composition Chart suggesting that the Fed should buy more Treasury bills and shift away from repo operations over time. Image: Deutsche Bank

Gold vs. Fed Funds Futures Chart showing the current divergence between gold and the implied Fed funds rate. Image: Longview Economics

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Jan. 29 Meeting Traders see a 14.4% probability of a 25-bps rate hike at the Fed’s FOMC January 29 meeting. Image: CME Group

Fed Funds Rate Expectations Muted inflation and moderation in job growth could support a Fed rate cut in June. Image: Oxford Economics

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Assets and Liabilities This chart shows the total assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve. According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: BofA Global Research

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States suggests that the U.S. economy is still in expansion mode over the next 6 months. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia