Search Results for: fed

U.S. Federal Government Debt’s Potential Impact On Growth This chart puts the U.S. federal government debt’s potential impact on growth into perspective. Picture source: Ned Davis Research

Fed Rate Cut – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Sept. 18 Meeting Today, traders see a 61.2% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC September 18 meeting. Picture source: CME Group

Fed’s Broad USD and Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart suggests that current equity market rotation weakends the U.S. dollar. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 1.8% for 2019:Q3 as of September 13, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of September 13, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.28%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index declined, but labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. A negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

The Fed’s Treasury Holdings by Maturity Nice chart showing the Fed’s Treasury holdings by maturity before and after the financial crisis. Picture source: Reuters

Fed Rate Cut vs. ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Since 1997, when the ISM Manufacturing Index is below 50 and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is above 52, the Fed is less aggressive, with about 68bp of easing on average. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Leads Real U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey leads real U.S. GDP growth by 3 months. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

Fed Rate Cuts Priced In and Recession Insurance cuts or recessionary cuts? It usually doesn’t end well, when the bond market begins to price in more than three rate cuts over the next 6 months. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research