Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of 1.35%. Click the Image to Enlarge

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is now 1.8% for 2019:Q4. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

S&P 500 Returns and Fed Balance Sheet

S&P 500 Returns and Fed Balance Sheet This chart suggests the positive relationship between the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and S&P 500 returns. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Fed’s Balance Sheet Composition

Fed’s Balance Sheet Composition Chart suggesting that the Fed should buy more Treasury bills and shift away from repo operations over time. Image: Deutsche Bank

Gold vs. Fed Funds Futures

Gold vs. Fed Funds Futures Chart showing the current divergence between gold and the implied Fed funds rate. Image: Longview Economics

Fed Funds Rate Expectations

Fed Funds Rate Expectations Muted inflation and moderation in job growth could support a Fed rate cut in June. Image: Oxford Economics

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Assets and Liabilities

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Assets and Liabilities This chart shows the total assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve. According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: BofA Global Research

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States suggests that the U.S. economy is still in expansion mode over the next 6 months. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia