Are We Near a Recession?

“The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.”

If history helps us to predict the future, a recession is coming when The Leading Index for the United States is below 1.

Today, it stands at 1.10. So, no immediate recession on the horizon.

Leading Index for the United States