Are We Near a Recession?
“The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.”
If history helps us to predict the future, a recession is coming when The Leading Index for the United States is below 1.
Today, it stands at 1.10. So, no immediate recession on the horizon.