Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of…
Where Do You See S&P 500 at Year End? Just 4.7% of JPM clients hold high expectations for the S&P 500 index, believing that it will surpass 6,000 by the end of 2024. This indicates…
Returns for Major Global Financial Assets Over the past 50 years, the annualized equity returns in the U.S., adjusted for inflation, have been around 7.5%. This solid long-term performance has allowed investors to achieve significant…
Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth The widening gap between U.S. home prices and wage growth has significant implications for housing affordability and economic inequality, making it harder for lower-income individuals and families to…
U.S. Headline Inflation and U.S. Core PCE inflation According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. PCE inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target by 2025, potentially leading to a more predictable and stable economic environment…
Nasdaq-100 Index, Short Interest as a Percent of Shares Outstanding The falling short interest in the Nasdaq 100 is seen as a potential bearish signal, as it reduces a source of support for the market…
Index Weight of 5 Largest Companies in Nasdaq 100 The Nasdaq 100 index is heavily concentrated in a few large tech companies. While this reflects the strength and innovation of these tech giants, it also…
Hedge Funds – Net Buys Hedge funds continue to hit the sell button, resulting in significant outflows over the past 3 months. Image: BofA Securities
Flows by Year into Active vs. Passive Funds Passive funds are growing in popularity as investors prioritize lower fees, potential tax advantages, and doubt active fund managers’ ability to consistently outperform the market. As a…
Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA…
S&P 500 – Factor Signal for Market Peaks Based on Quality, Momentum, and Valuation The combination of quality and momentum factors outperforming vs. history, along with elevated valuations, could signal that the market is approaching…